A booming domestic market, Brits flocking overseas and even a rise in ‘goodwill’ towards the UK. So what’s going on? asks Neal Baldwin.
There is one thing which is certain about Brexit, and that’s uncertainty. It is almost exactly one year since the referendum vote and the country is still no closer to finding out what leaving the EU will actually mean in practice.
There have been arguments for leaving and remaining aplenty, but can travel and tourism take any pointers so far? First up, predictions of a booming domestic market seem relatively well founded. At the end of last year, Abta’s Travel Trends Report for 2017 forecast a continuing upward surge for UK holidays – both for Brits and overseas visitors.
The Brexit uncertainty has seen the value of the pound fall about 15% since last June, and unsurprisingly, that’s gone down well with overseas tourists.
VisitBritain figures revealed that overseas visitors spent a record £2.7 billion in January and February alone – a rise of 11% on the same period in 2016; something the organisation’s director of strategy Patricia Yates put down to the combination of good value and sustained international marketing.
Indeed, efforts to promote the UK have been stepped up this year with tourism bodies keen to counter the impression that Brexit means the country is hostile to other nationalities.
Yates explained: “We must continue to build on our message of welcome and value in our high spending markets such as China, the US and the valuable European market.”
A recent Barclays’ Destination UK report underlined the goodwill among overseas visitors. The survey of 7,000 international holidaymakers revealed that 60% were more interested in visiting the UK than they were in 2016, while 97% expressed a desire to see the country at some point – great news given an average spend per visitor of £1,459.
Domestic breaks are also back in vogue with UK holidaymakers. Barclays’ research showed more than a third of Britons would prefer a domestic holiday this year, with a desire to see more of the country cited as one of the main reasons.
But what of the foreign holiday? Brexit doesn’t appear to have clipped the wings of Brits. Abta’s report suggested almost one quarter (24%) of holidaymakers would spend more on travelling abroad, and predicted that non-EU destinations such as Croatia would benefit from currency fluctuations.
According to the Office for National Statistics, UK residents made 6.1 million visits abroad in April 2017 – an increase of 2% compared with April 2016, while overseas trips in March 2017 were up 5% year-on-year.
In Spain, the most popular destination for Brits, UK tourist numbers rose 11% in the first quarter of 2017, with overnight stays in Portugal up 6%. Eliderico Viegas, chairman of the Association of Hotels and Resorts in the Algarve, said: “The depreciation of the pound led us to believe that there would be a slowdown in British tourists to Portugal but that hasn’t happened. It’s a surprise.”
Ironically, while Britain marches towards Brexit, the EU continues to remove barriers to international travel. In June the European Commission adopted new rules under the EU Aviation Strategy to widen open skies deals with Mexico and the Middle East, as well as boosting connectivity to remote European regions.
The importance of airline strategy cannot be underestimated, and carriers will be lobbying hard to get better deals from UK airports post-Brexit.
Expansion from carriers such as Ryanair and Norwegian has helped keep prices down and insulated tourists from the weak pound.
Ultimately, it’s all about consumer confidence. Indeed, 8.6% fewer Brits reportedly visited France in 2016 after the country suffered terror attacks.
After recent terror attacks in Westminster, Manchester and London Bridge, VisitBritain will be watching closely for similar impacts at home.