A new study from the LSE, commissioned by Amadeus, pinpoints which areas in travel are most likely to change in the next 10 years, and urges greater industry collaboration. By Matthew Parsons.
Chat bots that make use of big data and artificial intelligence, virtual assistants and “gate keepers”. These are some of the topics explored in a new 55-page report entitled Travel distribution: The end of the world as we know it? published in a new study by the LSE, which was commissioned by Amadeus IT Group.
The group commissioned an independent team of researchers at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) to predict future disruption. They interviewed 37 experts and collated responses from 377 people in travel and 18 airlines, with one of the key conclusions from the report a warning about so-called gatekeepers.
“Today, a small number of gatekeepers control the acquisition of billions of people,” the report said. Gatekeepers are the tech giants, such as Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple, who interface with consumers. Facebook is thought to be the leading smartphone app, with over 126 million users a month in 2015, according to research company Nielsen, 8% higher than in 2014.
“YouTube and Facebook Messenger each had almost 100 million users per month, while Google Search, Google Play, Google Maps and Gmail clocked up a combined 348 million users per month,” it added.
The report argued that gatekeepers have already disrupted the travel distribution industry through their advertising models. They have the power to direct consumers to particular players in return for a fee. They can target them with tailor-made advertising based on search history, profile or messaging app conversations.
As Kenny Jacobs, chief marketing officer at Ryanair, put it: “If a consumer is using Google email, Google calendar and Google search, they can apply their insights in the travel category more than anyone else. They know what a consumer has been searching for.”
As the power of gatekeepers to acquire billions of consumers grows, so too will industry players need to consider how to collaborate with them. “Now is an opportune time for the travel industry to... examine new approaches that are more innovative and collaborative,” the report noted.
“The size and speed of the consumer revolution – and the potential power it places in the hands of innovative firms – is underestimated by many players.”
More than 370 travel retailers were quizzed on how likely they believed certain technologies would disrupt travel distribution in the next 10 years. Mobile ranked top (scoring 9.5 out of 10), while mobile messaging and bots came second (9.2).
Again, it is these so-called gatekeepers that lead the charge, with their rapid development of virtual assistants such as Siri and Echo. The report noted that their search control was set to grow, offering them greater access to consumer data.
The report also highlighted the difference in views between airlines and travel agents regarding “future pathways”. They were each asked to score industry players in terms of their future importance. Airlines revealed direct sales were most important, with metasearch companies second. Offline agents came bottom. But for travel retailers, GDSs were seen as the most important distribution pathway for the next 10 years, and OTAs second.
“We recommend that the industry considers six key areas to focus on for future collaboration,” the report stated, listing: responding to consumer expectations; responding to the rise of gatekeepers; harnessing technology; integrating travel distribution; adapting to sharing economy platforms; and preparing for the rise of giant meta-OTA hybrids.
Read what Barrhead Travel's Sharon Munro has to say about unregulated travel disruptors