Addressing the Barrhead Travel conference at Lake Maggiore on Saturday (3 October), Wilson said the war in Iran and the wider conflict in the Middle East, the rollout of the EU Entry-Exit System (EES) and the UK's record-breaking hot summer had conspired to subdue early demand and push business into lates.

"We did see an immediate slowing down of demand with customers across the board," Wilson said, referring to the war. "And then it moving later, and later, and later. That late demand has stuck. It's still very late."

He said that while EES and the heatwaves were inconvenient and "a pain to deal with", their effects were temporary. "This [lates demand] seems to be lagging. And when I look at the sales this week or last week, about 20% of our sales are for departures in the next 30 days, which is unheard of."

Wilson said Egypt, Cyprus, Turkey and Morocco were hardest hit by the conflict. Egypt, he said, being used to crises, reacted by "wiping the price right down". By contrast, he said Cyprus has been "a little slow" to recover, adding Turkey was turning things round.

Asked if he thought easyJet and easyJet holidays, and the wider industry, was going to pull back the late booking trend, Wilson said: "It's not good for the industry to have it so late. "I think we all collectively need to really think as the year finishes how we pull forward the sales and get turn of year back to being a really exciting time for customers."

Critical six to eight weeks

Wilson said a process of "right-sizing" capacity was imminent. "I think you'll see capacity shift, and that will be addressed in the new year. A lot of those destinations that had really good availability in July and August shouldn't really be [readily] available in July or August next year."

"Standout" destinations, he said, included Egypt and Greece, with Spain "coming back well in lates", although Wilson said he felt there was still over-capacity in Spain.

He tipped North Africa for next year. "That's where a lot of tour operator capacity will go," he continued. "And also Turkey – with Turkey, we took the capacity out very early on. We went back to 2025 levels. We'll probably put that capacity back in."

Wilson said agents had done a lot of heavy lifting for easyJet holidays during lates. "When we look at our overall sales, 20% is through high street. But when we look at lates, that's significantly higher.

"I think just having the availability, having the price, having the products they want has really helped see that market share jump up in that late market.

"We went out with the fuel promise and various other things at the beginning, but I think just sitting down in a shop with a travel agent reassuring you as a customer – [it's] really, really important. We saw customers relying on that much more through this summer."

Wilson was asked if winter and summer capacity would be dictated by oil and fuel prices and whether the current economic realities could have a negative impact on demand. "I [about it] think every day. It's hugely expensive. Of course, we had hedging, but we have to think forward. If that sticks, it becomes difficult.

"I think there will be much more focus on where you're flying, getting the sales in early, getting the load factors up, and being really careful as to whether you fly that capacity or not. I think a lot of decisions will be taken in the next six to eight weeks as to whether that flies."

Wilson said savings could end up being made elsewhere. "As an airline, your biggest cost base – 90-odd percent – is your fuel. As a tour operator, 30% of your cost base is your fuel so you have the opportunity to negotiate contracts with hotels, to negotiate with your transfer providers. You have some tools to try to offset that fuel."

'Low-level' govt interference

Elsewhere, Wilson was critical of Prime Minister Andy Burnham and recently announced government measures to crack down on some airline charges like guaranteed seating with children and extra bags. "You think, that's just going to put the price of flight tickets up," he said. "You're just going to limit the amount of people who fly.

"He [Andy Burnham] said nothing about the taxation, about APD [Air Passenger Duty], about investment in SAF [Sustainable Aviation Fuel] which is going to be hugely prohibitive if the prices goes up.

"When the government gestures on low-level things that will get soundbites to consumers, you know, that's fine if behind the scenes they're really thinking structurally about how they can support the industry. With SAF, I think they have to do a lot more, a lot quicker, which isn't happening."

Wilson narrowed in on APD. "You can't say to a customer, 'we know how important your holiday is but we're going to tax the hell out of it'. It's either important or not to them. They do need to put their money where their mouth is."