After another tough year in which trading throughout travel is yet to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, despite a busy summer, the market now appears to be slowing down once again ahead of the January peaks season.
The current cold snap has brought the cost of living crisis, in particular, into sharp focus, it perhaps being the first time many consumers – and businesses – have had to really turn up the dial on their heating.
With consumers and businesses alike looking to control costs like never before, it is perhaps unsurprising to hear from agents many of their clients are thinking long and hard before laying down their deposits.
"The market seems really flat right now," said one respondent to TTG’s latest Travel Agent Tracker survey, the full findings of which will be revealed during TTG’s final Tracker Talk call of the year on Wednesday (14 December).
You can register for the call, which will take place from 1pm-2pm, here.
"Very few new enquiries, and often those that are enquiring are not booking," they continued. "They’re probably going online, possibly to save a bit more… Summer was busy, but business now is very slow."
Another agent said: "Clients are being cautious with how they’re spending their money – they still want to have a holiday to look forward to, but they want to get the very best value possible."
TTG has run the rule over the key insights from the latest Tracker survey and come up with five trends that are characterising business for agents at this time as we head deeper into the winter season.
Luxury and more premium bookings are enduring the slowdown. "The higher end remains buoyant," said one respondent, one of several similar comments. We've heard throughout the pandemic that luxury spend would likely endure the cost of living squeeze, and this is born out in agents' comments in the November survey. "Bucket list trips are still going ahead as before," said another. A third said: "Average sales prices this month have been higher, as I've had more trip-of-a-lifetime bookings where people have saved and want to go whatever happens."
Prices are going up, and those clients that are booking are typically spending more, albeit while searching far and wide for the best possible value. In October, nearly one in five agents (18%) said their average sales price per person was up to £1,000. This fell for the fourth consecutive month to 14% in November (October – 18%; September – 25%; and August – 30%). It means more people are paying a higher price per head at this time. The number of agents who said their average sales price in November was between £1,001 and £2,000 was 55%, up from 48% in October and September, and 43% in August. "It seems the middle market is the area most affected by cost squeezes," said one respondent.
Agents are discounting less and less, possibly due to constraints on capacity and availability. Just 7% of respondents said they discounted more in November than they did in October. This is down by 11% when you compare the same measurement from September going into October. At the same time, 43% said they discounted less in November than they did in October, up by 10% when comparing September and October. More than four in five respondents (82%) said they either didn't discount at all in November (34%) or did so by between 1-5% (48%). Only just over one in 10 respondents (11%) said they discounted more in monetary terms in November than they did in frequency terms.
Agents are continuing to find it difficult to get hold of suppliers in a timely fashion, with nearly half (46%) of respondents ranking "getting hold of suppliers" as one of the three biggest issues facing their businesses right now. Converting new enquiries, meanwhile, rose to third in the list, with 30% of agents flagging it. This is the fourth consecutive month-on-month increase for this issue (October – 25%; September – 20%; August – 18%). Several respondents said the issues went hand in hand. "It's tough not being able to talk to suppliers," said one respondent. Another added: "Enquiries and costings from tour operators are taking days."
With all that said, 43% of respondents said November was a better month than October, up from 41% who said October was a better month than November. Also, more than half of respondents (52%) said they were feeling either very (16%, up 8% month-on-month) or quite (36%, up 6% month-on-month) optimistic about the coming months, while 39% said they felt 50:50. Less than 10% said they either felt not very optimistic (7%) or not optimistic at all (2%) about the months ahead. "On the whole, very positive," said one agent. "I will then hit the ground running afterwards [post-Christmas] in January." Another said: "Clients are conscious of the cost of living crisis, but also have a ‘sod it’ attitude, and want to book to have something to look forward to."
Remember, you can join TTG editor Sophie Griffiths and news editor James Chapple for Tracker Talk on Wednesday (14 December) from 1pm-2pm. Our Tracker Talk calls are where we exclusively reveal the findings of our latest Travel Agent Tracker survey, so register here to be among the first to hear.
TTG's Travel Agent Tracker research programme will continue in 2023 as we shift from charting travel's emergence from the pandemic to its ambitions to prosper anew. A 12th and final monthly survey to send off 2022, concerning trading in December, will be sent out in the new year before a new programme gets under way looking at 2023 – and beyond. Anyone wishing to find out more should held to ttgmedia.com/tracker or email jchapple@ttgmedia.com.