The analytics firm claims international departures will reach 68% of pre-Covid levels globally in 2022, and are expected to improve to 82% in 2023 and 97% in 2024.
They will then make a full recovery by 2025 and even marginally exceed 2019 levels, with a projected 1.5 billion international departures forecast by the end of 2025.
However, the firm said the trajectory for the recovery is "not linear" across regions or countries, and warned there were several factors that could hamper this recovery.
Hannah Free, travel and tourism analyst at GlobalData, said international departures from European countries are expected to reach 69% of 2019 figures in 2022.
"As travel confidence rebuilds, the intra-European market is expected to benefit, driven by preferences for short-haul travel," she said
Meanwhile, outbound departures from North America are projected to reach 69% of 2019 levels this year, before making a full recovery by 2024, at 102% of 2019 levels, ahead of other regions.
"However, travel recovery must contend with inflation, rising costs of living and the war in Ukraine," Free added.
Asia-Pacific is expected to lag in terms of recovery. Outbound departures from the region will only reach 67% of 2019 levels in 2022, owing to the relatively slower removal of travel restrictions, and the propensity for renewed domestic restrictions during Covid outbreaks.
"While global international travel is set to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, tourism demand may look quite different," Free added. "From two years of very limited travel, several long-term shifts and short-term trends have emerged.
"Consumers are now more likely to pursue authentic experiences, demand personalised travel offerings, blend business and leisure travel, and be more conscious of their overall environmental impact."
