The army is being brought in to staff immigration halls, baggage handlers are striking, and there are no trains before, during and after the festive period. It’s enough to make the average person hunker down and stay at home – exactly what the travel industry doesn’t need right now.

Home secretary Suella Braverman stopped short of telling people not to travel over Christmas, but told broadcasters on Thursday (8 December): “I really want to urge people who have got plans to travel abroad to think carefully about their plans because they may well be impacted.”

The extent of that possible impact makes for alarming reading.

• Thousands of Border Force staff will walk out for eight days over 23-26 December and 28-31 December at Birmingham, Cardiff, Gatwick, Glasgow, Heathrow and Manchester airports, as well as Newhaven ferry terminal. Action is due to affect 10,072 flights during the Christmas getaway, according to Cirium data.
  
  
• Train strikes will affect travel on 13, 14, 16 and 17 December, and on 3, 4, 6 and 7 January, effectively meaning five days of disrupted travel each time. Fourteen train companies will be affected and the RMT union has also declared an overtime ban from 18 December to 2 January.
  
  
• Baggage handlers at Heathrow employed by Menzies are set to strike from 16 December. The 72-hour strike action will affect flights operated by Air Canada, American Airlines, Lufthansa, Swiss Air, Air Portugal, Austrian Airlines, Qantas, Egypt Air, Aer Lingus and Finnair from Heathrow Terminals 2, 3 and 4.
  
  
• Eurostar security staff contracted by Mitie, who are members of the RMT union, will walk out on 16, 18, 20 and 23 December in a dispute over pay.
  
  
• Postal strikes are scheduled for 9, 11, 14, 15, 23 and 24 December affecting any paper travel documentation.

The main threat to travel comes from immigration staff after the Public and Commercial Services union on Wednesday (7 December) called eight days strike action. Advantage Travel Partnership chief executive Julia Lo Bue-Said said the strikes risked damaging consumer confidence in travel and plunging the country back into the "chaos" that followed the lifting of the UK’s Covid travel restrictions earlier this year.

Border Force employees are part of a wider dispute with the Home Office, which has offered a 2% pay offer; the PCS union, though, is asking for 10%, plus other conditions such as no cuts to redundancy terms. A ballot of members found 86% in favour of strikes.

Immigration minister Robert Jenrick said contingencies were in preparation, although in a statement provided to TTG he warned: “While we are working closely with all UK ports and airports and have robust plans in place to minimise any delays if strike action goes ahead, passengers should be prepared for their plans to be severely disrupted.”

Military personnel, civil servants and volunteers are undergoing training in Border Force roles. Passenger forecasting will also be used to determine when and where to deploy replacement staff.

The Airport Operators Association called the action “disappointing” and urged all parties “to get back around the table to resolve these strikes before they begin or put in place concrete and deliverable contingency measures to keep the border operating smoothly”.

If it goes ahead, industrial action will hit short-haul flights hardest, as these deliver a new set of passengers three times a day, so airlines could be under pressure to reduce these numbers. However, industry sources told TTG reports airlines were being told to cancel 30% of flights scheduled over the strike period are wide of the mark because passenger numbers are not yet at 2019 levels, so there are fewer people to process.

Tui and British Airways did not respond to TTG’s request for details of any contingency plans, but Jet2.com confirmed it would be affected at Birmingham, Glasgow and Manchester. However, chief executive Steve Heapy said: “We would like to let our customers and industry partners know that we very much intend to operate our full schedule of flights throughout the festive period, including on the dates when strike action is taking place.”

The silence from other carriers probably indicates they do not share Jet2’s confidence and are preparing to trim their schedules, or at least wait for more advice from the government. They will, though, have to reveal their plans in the next few days – so once again, it’s a case of watch this space for travel.

Gary Noakes is senior contributor and analyst at TTG.