Juan Carlos Salazar, general secretary of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), said the body’s latest air passenger forecasts "build on the strong momentum towards recovery" seen in 2022.

ICAO expects airlines to return to operating profitability in the final quarter of the year after "three consecutive years of losses" and for air passenger demand to be even stronger in 2024, exceeding 2019 levels by around 4%.

This, it said, in terms of compound annual growth rate, would translate into growth of 0.7% during the period from 2019 to 2024. ICAO’s outlook is based on the assumption risks affecting international air transport "do not escalate from current levels".

"Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic," said ICAO council president Salvatore Sciacchitano.

Air passenger carryings in 2022 increased by an estimated 47% compared with 2021, according to ICAO, while revenue passenger kilometres increased by around 70% over the same period, which ICAO attributes to "the rapid recovery of most international routes".

This contributed to growth in airlines’ annual passenger revenues of around 50% from 2021 into 2022.

ICAO added that in line with earlier predictions, the ongoing "strong recovery" in air passenger demand resulted in 2022 passenger numbers reaching an estimated 74% of pre-pandemic levels, with passenger revenues running to just over two-thirds of 2019 levels.

Aircraft utilisation, meanwhile, is estimated to be running at around 75% of pre-pandemic levels.