The projections come from the most recent edition of the European Tourism Trends and Prospects quarterly report carried out by the European Travel Commission (ETC).
In 2022, international tourist arrivals to Europe are forecast to be 30% below 2019 volumes, supported by domestic and short-haul travel. Meanwhile, domestic travel is projected to recover fully in 2022, while international travel is not expected to exceed 2019 levels until 2025.
The report, which monitors the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic as well as current economic and geopolitical headwinds on tourism, also anticipates European tourism will continue recovering in 2022, but at a slower pace than previously hoped.
Despite remaining in negative territory, year-to-date data for Q1 showed across all reporting destinations, arrivals are estimated to be 43% lower on a weighted basis relative to 2019 - an improvement over the 60% decline observed in the previous quarter.
The report shows Covid-19 is the primary factor influencing consumer travel plans – but helped by the Covid-19 vaccines and boosters, as well as destinations’ health protocols and certifications, international travellers are now less hesitant about visiting Europe.
Luis Araujo, ETC’s president, said the European tourism sector has become "adept at dealing with uncertainties and challenges" over the course of the pandemic.
"The sector is steadily recovering from Covid-19 and there is cause for optimism," he added. "Nevertheless, European tourism will have to maintain this fortitude throughout the year as Europe continues to deal with the significant fallout from the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict."
