The airport’s directors set out their stance on Thursday (23 February) as Heathrow published its latest annual results, confirming a £684 million loss – down from a £1.27 billion loss in 2021.

Passenger numbers, meanwhile, tripled in 2022 from 19.4 million to 62 million – 77% of 2019 levels – despite a range of operational challenges, which included bringing in 25,000 new members of staff.

Heathrow said pandemic border closures and the subsequent loss of skills owing to subdued demand had "deeply scarred" the global aviation sector.

However, it said after considering the impact of delays to expansion "and the potential impact of Covid-19 on long-term passenger demand and the impact of climate change", its directors had concluded expansion "remains probable".

"While we have paused work to expand Heathrow during Covid-19, recovery from the pandemic has shown the pent-up demand from airlines to fly from Heathrow, as well as how critical Heathrow is for the UK’s trade routes," said Heathrow.

"We are currently conducting an internal review of the work we have carried out and the different circumstances we find the aviation industry in, and this will enable us to progress with appropriate recommendations."

Prior to the pandemic, Heathrow was given the green light by the government to explore expansion of the airport via a third runway, albeit subject to gaining planning permission. Formally, the government’s position remains the same despite several years of pandemic upheaval, it being enshrined in the country’s Airports National Policy Statement.

The government has subsequently reaffirmed its backing for the ANPS on two occasions – in September 2021 and May 2022 – and Heathrow said its ambitions continued to be supported by the CAA. It has, though, acknowledged expansion will still likely depend on further confirmation of the ANPS by the transport secretary, or the outcome of a review.

"Covid-19 has created uncertainty of when passenger demand will recover to pre-pandemic levels," said the airport. "However, management’s current long-term passenger modelling still supports the business case. Long-term passenger forecasts are continually reviewed by management and the board, which still support the fact that expansion would be affordable and financeable."

‘Green growth agenda’

Heathrow, though, said sustainability would likely now be a much larger consideration should it seek planning permission to expand the airport via a third runway.

"In order to obtain planning consent for the third runway, we will have to demonstrate that expanding Heathrow is compatible with the UK’s climate change obligations, including the Paris Climate Agreement," said the airport.

"The government has made decarbonising aviation a central part of its green growth agenda, through wider use of sustainable aviation fuel as well as new technology, and such widespread innovation is incorporated into our long-term forecasting."

It added: "The directors have carefully considered the risks to expansion, particularly future demand recovery following Covid-19 in addition to climate change risk on long-term passenger numbers, the legislative and regulatory environment, and any likely finance-ability risks. We still consider expansion as a probable outcome."

Heathrow will adopt this stance when it comes to next steps in its pursuit of expansion when engaging with investors, government, airline customers, local communities and regulators.