A quick scroll through Abta’s top 23 destinations for 2023, published at the start of the year, revealed one notable absentee – the UK. This omission came despite a surge in UK tourism during the pandemic. Summer 2021 saw chronic overtourism in some areas, with Cornwall even pleading for visitors to go elsewhere.

And despite a post-pandemic resurgence in overseas travel, many Brits remain content rediscovering the joys on their own doorsteps. HF Holidays chief executive David Harrington was particularly peeved about Abta’s ranking. “Domestic travel has been highly popular in the past two years and I’m sure many people booking now are looking at UK destinations.”

However, as Covid retreated, Visit Cornwall chief executive Malcolm Bell said last August “staycation fatigue” had set in, with numbers significantly down. “Now we’re back to having to try to attract visitors,” he said.

But there are signs the cost of living squeeze – and last summer’s airport chaos – have swung things in the UK’s favour again. At the start of February, HF, which offers UK walking and special interest holidays, had almost 70% of planned 2023 sales confirmed, with revenue up 29% on 2019.

Holidaymakers ’hit hard’

One potential boost for the domestic sector this year is the coronation, which means three bank holidays in May and for operators like HF, themed breaks around the event. The coronation should have coincided with a potential barrier to going abroad – the introduction of the EU’s biometric fingerprint entry scheme, which had originally been scheduled for the same month.

Apocalyptic warnings of massive immigration queues may have persuaded more people to stay in the UK, but the scheme will not now be introduced until 2024. The huge pre-Easter queues at Dover, though, plus months of public sector strike action in France, might well yet persuade a few more people to holiday closer to home this summer.

Harrington added the appeal of domestic breaks was being enhanced by full-board packages, which helps consumers budget, while client feedback highlights a preference for low- impact holidays.

VisitBritain has grounds to be optimistic. Its February Domestic Sentiment Tracker revealed 2023 trip intentions were above pre- pandemic levels, with cost of living a factor – more than a quarter of interviewees (27%) said they had been “hit hard”.

The number of respondents expressing a preference for UK versus overseas trips in the next six months, compared with pre- pandemic, stood at 36%, up five points since January.

VisitBritain found 72% of those interviewed in February were planning a UK overnight trip in 2023 compared with 59% in the same month last year. The same question was asked about overseas trips, with 51% stating their intention, although this had risen year on year from 43%.

Ease of planning was given as the main reason for UK popularity (60%), with the next being price (48%). Significantly, 35% said they wished to avoid long airport queues or flight cancellations.

The Tracker also revealed 62% believe the worst is yet to come regarding cost of living, although this was down from 71% in January. Only 15% said they believed the worst had passed – another factor that should favour domestic sales.

’Staycation surge’

Despite this, Visit Cornwall’s Bell remained “very cautious”. “Bookings are OK from regular visitors, especially in the holiday park sector, and there are some new clients. But there’s a lot of lookers, not bookers, and most operators are reporting a lag in normal booking patterns,” he said.

There are no such concerns for coach specialist Leger Shearings. Group chief executive Liam Race said: “During the pandemic, momentum was high for UK holidays – predominantly rural destinations – and this shows no sign of slowing down in 2023.”

Like others, Leger is benefiting from a spike in bookings compared with early last year when Omicron was a factor, including a tripling in demand for Scotland.

Race said this meant the “staycation surge” was still in evidence. He named Guernsey as another big seller, but added: “Customers are also returning to cities for shopping and culture.”

Trends pre-date Covid

Sykes Holiday Cottages, which offers 22,500 properties, also believes the staycation trend is still apparent. Bookings to Sykes’ UK holiday lets during December were up by 22% versus December 2019.

Chief executive Graham Donoghue said: “The shift towards staycations had already begun pre-Covid, but our bookings over the past year – and in January in particular – would suggest there are still no signs of this slowing.

He added uncertainty around Covid had been replaced with other worries, such as pressure on household budgets, encouraging some to pursue staycations as a better-value option.

Heading into spring, consumers, for the most part, have got through winter aided by government help with utility bills. But it seems the cost of living crisis is still convincing some that holidaying in the UK is a wiser choice than going abroad – let’s just hope the weather is kind to them.