Iceland’s Play is already in the skies, with Norse Atlantic Airways set to begin flying from the UK to the US early next year. Two other start-ups, Hans Airways and Flypop, are painting their aircraft in preparation of flying between the UK and India.

From any crisis comes an opportunity, and these four are seizing it firmly. Play, which flies from Stansted to Reykjavik, has applied for a licence to fly to the US, and is planning to offer UK passengers connections via Iceland.

Connecting in Iceland to go to the States is nothing new; Icelandair has been offering this very successfully for years. Another Icelandic carrier, Wow Air, tried to emulate it, but unlike Icelandair and Play, it went for widebody aircraft and failed in March 2019.

Norse, meanwhile, plans to pick up where Norwegian left off when it quit long-haul due to over-expansion and the pandemic. The first of 15 ex-Norwegian aircraft are being resprayed in Norse’s new colours, with flights from Gatwick – likely to initially include New York and Orlando – due to start “by late Q1 or early Q2”.

Hans Airways and Flypop are being set up to service the huge demand for UK-India traffic, which Flypop puts at 10 million VFR passengers and three million tourists. Both will use older widebody aircraft, of which there are hundreds sitting in the desert with bargain price tags pasted on the windshield.

Which of these has the best chance of success? Well, Play is the lowest risk model, as it uses single-aisle aircraft that are cheaper to operate and less hassle to fill. Iceland is also perfectly positioned mid-way across the Atlantic and has reopened as a tourist destination already. Cautious expansion to one or two US destinations will almost certainly help, not hinder.

Norse has an open goal at Gatwick following Norwegian’s withdrawal, while Virgin Atlantic and British Airways remain hunkered down at Heathrow.

Moreover, Norwegian’s popularity has proved there is no resistance from consumers to a strange sounding brand if the price is right and it should be well received – but only if the US government lifts its ban on UK visitors before the planned launch.

The two carriers to India will also operate a low-cost model, but their start-up comes just as the four main Middle East carriers, as well as Turkish Airlines, ramp up their operations.

Between them, they have an extensive network to India and at least one of them will offer a one-stop flight to any Flypop or Hans Airways’ destination at highly competitive rates in a very price sensitive market.

‘Extraordinary times’

Forward sales are vital to airlines’ cashflow, especially to start-ups, so all these ventures will need a positive consumer environment to set them on their way.

This may be a big stumbling block. Last week, I took my first flights since October 2019. The brief hop from Gatwick to Edinburgh and back was a breeze, as were both airports.

But I asked myself if I would want to spend eight hours or so wearing a mask flying long-haul and if I wanted the hassle of a crowded, hot foreign airport to deal with under those circumstances – plus all the testing and documentation issues.

I concluded not, but hopefully others will think differently, especially those with relatives overseas who haven’t seen each other in person since before Covid struck. 

It is a brave time to start an airline, but the industry is full of entrepreneurs who, even in normal times, took a gamble despite the low margins and numerous risks involved.

In extraordinary times like these, you can only salute them.