It’s been interesting talking to some well-respected travel writers since the terrorist attacks in Istanbul and Jakarta. They talked about “holidaymakers becoming not the collateral damage caused by acts of terrorism but the specific targets” and speculated about the very future of the travel industry. Is it the end of tourism and the cheap package holiday as we know it?
But this sort of talk is too far down the speculative road. Let’s take a calm look at the UK travel industry and the two distinct markets – the specialists (Aito members, for example) and the mainstream businesses, with their planes, hotels and reps, moving huge numbers to mass-market destinations.
Aito’s niche holiday firms report buoyant sales, with clients trading up to go to “safer” areas such as Spain and the Caribbean. These clients are seen as more geopolitically aware and tend to be determined not to forgo their regular holiday fix.
For Tui and Thomas Cook, the so-called cheap package holiday market will not disappear, but will change.
These large firms have fleets of aircraft that they will need to reposition. They will put them where they can find the right number of beds and will then drive traffic to those destinations, by aggressive pricing if necessary and using their high-spend marketing clout.
Tui has been helped by adding the Dreamliner to its fleets, allowing them to bring far-flung destinations into play. Where medium-haul is concerned, we may hear more about, say, the Cape Verde islands – but mass-market destinations will be located wherever the right number of beds can be secured.
Will new destinations take a while to set up? Frankly, no.
They may look for airports and areas less known to UK tourists – for example, Spain’s Costa De La Luz – but could doubtless supply a quantity of beds if the big operators decided to fly their aircraft there.
But will new destinations take a while to set up? Frankly, no. The UK travel industry can, when necessary, move fast – contract some beds, tie in airport slots, price aggressively, promote, and bingo! New markets can emerge almost overnight, with online marketing allowing swift introduction of new destinations.
On the city breaks side, while some may be concerned in the wake of the Paris and Istanbul attacks, our memories are short. What seems traumatising today, in the form of bombs in cities, can quickly become simply another part of life.
In my view, recent events do not signify the end of the cheap package holiday but could rather herald a few interesting changes and new destinations in 2016 and beyond.
It’s important to reflect that beavering away in the background there are hundreds of small specialist niche operators who don’t go through any of this extensive re-engineering of their holiday wares. They carry on as usual, finding unique and creative holiday ideas for their more discerning and educated clients, who trust them and follow their suggestions and advice. What comes to mind is perhaps a parallel universe of holidays – the niche and the mainstream. But there is room, of course, for us all.
