WTM London and ForwardKeys’ 2022 summer Travel Outlook Report charts travel’s recovery from the Covid crisis to date, with Europe leading the way. Global air travel, the partners predict, is forecast to reach two-thirds (65%) of pre-pandemic levels this summer.

Europe has seen the biggest tourism recovery so far, now reporting the highest overall volume of tourist arrivals. Across Europe, beach destinations are also recovering more quickly than urban hotspots. Moreover, the report states: "The current enthusiasm to travel overseas is so strong that a rise in air fares has done relatively little to dampen demand."

WTM and ForwardKeys highlight how average air fares between the US and Europe have risen by more than 35% between January and May "with no noticeable slowing in booking rates".

Together, the partners believe leisure travel will continue to rebound strongly in the third quarter of the year, July, August and September, with a second end of year Travel Outlook Report due to be published during WTM London over 7-9 November charting this progress.

This rebound, the report states, will be strongest in Africa and the Middle East where Q3 arrivals are expected to reach 83% of 2019 levels, followed by the Americas (76%), Europe (71%) and Asia Pacific (35%).

The Middle East, in particular, is benefiting from a recovery in inter-continental travel driven by people looking to travel between Asia and Europe where airports in the region serve as connecting hubs.

WTM and ForwardKeys said several destinations popular with European holidaymakers – Antalya, Mykonos and Rhodes – were reaping the rewards of reopening early and communicating their Covid travel requirements and measures clearly and proactively.

"Greece was among the first European nations to reopen to non-essential travel and has been clear and consistent in its messaging throughout the pandemic," read the report. Additionally, the urban destinations with the best rates of recovery – Naples, Istanbul, Athens and Lisbon – are all gateways to sun and beach resorts, the report notes.

The once region where the Covid recovery is progressing more slowly is travel to and within the Asia Pacific region, where Covid-19 travel restrictions have been tougher and more enduring.

’New markets and opportunities’

"It’s encouraging to see the results of the Travel Outlook Report and how markets around the world are recovering this summer," said WTM London exhibition director Juliette Losardo. "It will be interesting to see how these findings develop by winter, and we look forward to welcoming ForwardKeys to present the next installation of this exclusive research at World Travel Market in November.

"These reports are based on robust data, from airlines and travel agencies, giving industry executives clear insights about which regions and which sectors are bouncing back strongly – as well as information about post-pandemic trends and consumer behaviour."

Olivier Ponti, vice-president of insights at ForwardKeys, added: "With 2022 seeing travel restrictions lifted, connectivity re-established, and consumer confidence regained, demand for international travel is on the rise once more. In Q3 this year, holidaymakers are relatively much keener to leave the pandemic behind with a relaxing break on the beach than they are to consume culture, cities and sightseeing."

Ponti said long-established travel trends were evolving as a result of the pandemic, adding that as travel transitions back towards normality, new patterns would continue to emerge opening up "new markets and opportunities".