Cookes’ prediction came during a panel session at the group’s conference in Madeira on Saturday (30 April), with moderator David Meade; Joanna Kolatsis, director of Themis Advisory; Simon McNamar, Iata UK and Ireland country manager; Martin Alcock, owner of the Travel Trade Consultancy; and Chris Lewis from Travelogix. 

"Booking patterns have definitely changed," Cookes continued. "We have seen an increase in demand for return flights on Thursdays as people try to balance their working lives with taking trips abroad.

"There has been a shift from people booking multiple, shorter trips to single, longer trips. In leisure, around 60% of business typically comes in Q1, that’s now completely different. The majority are for departures for the next 12 weeks, largely due to complex in-destination requirements.

"Traditional booking patterns will come back, but not until 2024. We will aim to support members secure further-out bookings, and sweep up business for imminent departures."

Cookes questioned whether agencies’ traditional opening hours were still fit for purpose, and if agents can continue to offer out-of-hours support and Zoom consultations.

"The secret to success is being able to balance that human touch with the use of technology. The key is offering clients the service they want.

"Social media has also become more important in the post-pandemic world. It is absolutely a distribution channel and we need to use it as such. What we post can both enhance and damage our brand."

Meanwhile, Alcock said consumers will be keen to travel this summer despite the rising cost of living in the UK. 

"My feeling is that for this summer, the holiday will win out," he said. "People are desperate to go on holiday – to hell with the consequences."

He added stakeholders coming back to travel are positive signs of recovery – in particular investors, insurers and merchant acquirers. "The summer period is going to be very late, but it is definitely going to be a strong one," he said.

Elsewhere, Kolatsis said trust will play a key role in reshaping the traditional peak period. "It’s going to be about trust moving forward," she told delegates.

"As long as you have trust, and give customers confidence that their money is safe, they will book earlier. The flexibility is going to stay with us for some time, which is why people are booking later so they have that choice."

Agents’ stock ‘at an all-time high’

McNamara echoed Advantage chief Julia Lo Bue-Said and urged the industry to "find its collective voice" to help the sector recover from the pandemic.

"We actually work quite well together but there isn’t a single voice for the whole sector," he said.

"Julia has carved out a fantastic space for Advantage and for those discussions with government, but we can definitely do better, we can always do better, but at the same time we are different industries with our own agendas." 

Lewis praised agents and TMCs for their resilience during the pandemic and for being a "much-needed arm around the shoulder" for the consumer. 

"Travel agencies and TMCs have always been pivotal – but never before has an agent or a TMC shown their value as much as they have during the pandemic," he continued.

"They provide the much-needed arm around the shoulder for the consumer in a post-pandemic world. Their stock is at an all time high."