Professor Trevor Williams, a Lloyds Bank’s former chief economist, told Advantage conference delegates there were myriad reasons to be optimistic, despite both current and past global shocks such as the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the 2008 financial crash.
“Travel will always continue as the human urge to travel is evolutionary, that’s how we colonised the planet,” Williams told delegates on Sunday.
The global tourism industry, Williams said, is already rebounding, with expenditure back to pre-Covid levels. He said passenger numbers would return to 2019 levels once China fully resumes foreign travel.
Prof Williams also urged delegates to capitalise on economic and demographic trends, such as increases in global prosperity to never-before seen levels and an ageing global population.
Data highlighted by the professor showed the number of living people over the age of 80 is expected to rise to 40% by 2100.
“There’s a lot of consumption and [therefore] a lot of opportunities,” he continued. “A lot of travellers are increasingly getting older – they’re wealthier and want to do more stuff.”
Turning to the UK, Prof Williams told agents a recovery was under way, even though Britain’s trade performance has deteriorated due to Brexit as it is harder now to trade with the rest of the world. “It was always not going to be a good thing to do,” he said.
The UK is in fact the only G7 economy to still be below pre-pandemic levels of output, with productivity being a fundamental issue since the 2008 financial crisis crisis.
The professor explained that Britain’s productivity issues are not due to a lack of jobs – as there are just as many jobs as there are unemployed Brits – but to the UK population’s inactivity.
According to Williams, people over 50 are retiring in increasingly larger numbers while a good part of the UK workforce is getting sicker as a result of issues such as long Covid. “We do not have an employment problem,” he said. “Anyone that wants to work and has the skills [can].”
