Dr Andy Jefferson, Sustainable Aviation programme director, said the aviation industry had already done more than most others to move towards zero emissions.
Sustainable aviation fuels, new propulsion methods and airspace reform meant decarbonisation of the sectors was achievable, he said. “There’s a lot we are not making enough noise about as an industry,” he told Abta’s Aviation Forum in London on Tuesday (25 April).
Airlines had already delivered 30% passenger growth between 2005 and 2019 with only a 1% increase in emissions, he said. The first transatlantic net zero flight was being planned and carbon capture to make fuel was already a reality.
He said SAF would provide the bulk of emissions reductions (39%) by 2050 but more efficient aircraft and “free route airspace”, which allows pilots to pick their own entry and exit point in a block of airspace would further reduce CO2. The latter has been trialled in Scotland and the south-west but will face opposition in some areas due to noise.
Another significant development was carbon removal, which would provide a 13% reduction. “We expect by 2050 that we are not carbon offsetting, we are carbon removal,” Jefferson said.
A final factor, demand reduction due to the cost of sustainability measures, would equate to around 14% of carbon removal, he said. “This is an acknowledgement of the cost of this, there will be a 14% reduction in unconstrained demand.” He estimated the extra cost at “around £15 per passenger”.
Jefferson dismissed claims there would not be enough SAF in the UK: “SAF can provide 75% of aviation fuel by 2050. If we get policy right in the UK, it can generate 60,000 jobs and £11 billion. We think two-thirds can be UK made.”
The government has pledged to have “at least” five SAF plants under construction by 2025. Jefferson said. “The aviation sector can’t do this by itself – we need the help of government."
The UK was very suited to carbon removal projects that involved storing CO2 underground, he said. “Oil and gas production means we have these big caves under the North Sea. It is almost a USP opportunity for the UK we are keen to exploit.”
