The outlook is understandably mixed given the ongoing economic uncertainties; some describe it being "feast or famine" depending on the day of the week, while others believe the best is still to come.

Kelly Cookes, Advantage Travel Partnership chief commercial officer, characterised trading as “buoyant" despite members chasing the big numbers they saw during two strong preceding years.

"Some report they are ahead of last year, while others are saying enquiries are good, but the conversion is not there yet,” she said, adding she foresees peaks "continuing to build over the next couple of weeks".

Gary Gillespie, managing director of The Travel Network Group homeworking outfit Independent Travel Experts, was another to voice concern about slower conversion rates. “We’re receiving feedback from some members that customers are taking longer to commit to bookings,” he said.

“Economic concerns, particularly around rising mortgage costs and broader financial uncertainties, are leading to more cautious decision making. Despite this, the combination of strong marketing campaigns and the diverse travel options available is helping sustain momentum.”

He revealed January is already running ahead of budget for ITE, and would “surpass expectations” if it continued at the same rate.

January is always a long month, and there were signs some consumers were waiting for payday before committing to their travel plans.

However, another big player – Barrhead Travel – has already reported its “highest ever” trading period for the week ending 19 January, up by 22%. "Once again, I think we’re going to see peaks extend well into February this year,” predicted managing director Nicki Tempest-Mitchell.

"Spend per person is increasing. We’ve noticed more people upgrading flights or accommodation, and frequency of travel seems to be on the rise too. It’s not uncommon for our branches to be receiving multiple bookings from the same customer in one day – our record so far in January is six bookings in one go.

"I think within the industry, people are aware the post-pandemic travel boom never declined – but I believe that’s because people’s holiday habits have now fundamentally changed.”

‘Feast or famine’

At a more grassroots level, the outlook flits mostly between contentment and anticipation. "In previous years, February has always been a better month than January,” said Deben Travel’s Lee Hunt. “Traditionally, things stay fairly steady until the end of January, then pick up as we enter February."

Kimara Boyd, team leader at Trowbridge’s Howard Travel, agreed. “Peaks is definitely going to get busier. January is starting to pick up, and February is usually crazy. That’s always our trend.”

Both are optimistic. “Peaks has been pretty good – we’re slightly up compared with 2024,” said Hunt. “Passenger numbers are down, but average booking values are up. Overall, I’m happy, even though I would like it to be a bit busier. Saturday 18 January was probably our busiest day as we did more than £75,000 sales.”

Boyd said the same few days had been “incredible”, but mid-week was quieter.

In Scotland, Thorne Travel director Shona Thorne has also had an uneven experience. “It’s been very strange," she said. "We’ve had very busy days where we can’t keep on top of it, and then we’ve had very quiet days. It’s like feast or famine."

She sees some clients anxious to secure bargains, a sign perhaps of the ongoing cost of living squeeze. “We’re getting lots of family and cruise business, but the issue with family packages is discounting. A lot of agencies seem to be discounting dramatically, which is something I’m not entertaining.”

In the north-east, Now Lets Travel director Paul Johnstone said a slow start to January had given way to a "massive uptick". "I think the slow start was because of the kids going back to school a bit later than usual, and people have probably been tightening their purse strings. I reckon the cold weather has encouraged people to book.”

Johnstone highlighted a surge in lates, with bookings for departures within a week up by 700% in mid-January, while bookings for departures within 10 weeks were currently representing more than a third – 35% – of the agency’s sales.

Cruise sales lagging

Others have a different outlook owing to their typical customer profile. Simon Oram, director of The Travel Shop in Sutton Coldfield, said his average sale wasn’t usually “bucket and spade”. “Peaks doesn’t usually start until mid-January for us, and that’s been the case this year,” he said.

Some clients, he said, were “taking longer to confirm”, noting the agency’s tailor-made specialism. “That does take a lot longer. The bookings we’re working on are worth spending time on. I’m working on expedition cruises for 2026/27 – those take a long time.”

At Hays Travel, chief operating officer Jonathon Woodall-Johnston reports an even split among summer and winter sales. "Roughly 50% of bookings are for summer 2025, with May, July and August the most popular months," he said, revealing Hays had so far seen a 37% increase in new-to-Hays customers.

Woodall-Johnston was another to flag the persistent lates trend. “We are still seeing plenty of late bookings for this winter," he said, albeit coming in contrast to demand for "bucket-list" travel for 2026 and even 2027.

He admitted cruise sales had initially lagged. “The slightly slower start to the year we saw in cruise sales was a surprise, although that’s turning around now – we have seen an upturn in cruise bookings over the past two weeks," he said, highlighting strong support from suppliers and investment in training.

‘Living in the moment’

Despite some blips, there appears to be significant cause for optimism. Steve Witt, co-founder of Not Just Travel, reported “double-digit growth across all areas of the business”.

"Average booking value is up by 7% compared with the same period last year, despite some amazing deals from operators,” he said. “Discounting across our group has reduced, suggesting there are great deals out there, and the market is appreciating the value our consultants offer."

He too is expecting an uptick in February. “Sales are incredibly strong, and we expect to see these increase even further as we come into the last week of January and consumers have been paid.”

The final say goes to Sandra Corkin, managing director of Northern Ireland’s Oasis Travel, who said she was “absolutely delighted” with January, telling TTG she and her team were taking it day by day.

“It’s so difficult to say if the next couple of weeks will be even better because we reported very strong sales at the end of last year," she said.

"We’re just living in the moment and enjoying good business. But for sure, there’s no sign of things slowing down.”