The second half of 2022 saw long-haul demand outpace restored capacity, according to findings by the European Travel Commission and Tourism Economics, although the sector still lags behind short- and medium-haul travel to Europe.

The research highlighted how long-haul visitors accounted for a quarter of international visitor nights spent in Europe pre-pandemic. 

The report said the US remained the biggest inbound market “and is leading the way in recovery” aided by the strength of the dollar. In 2019, the US accounted for almost a quarter of all European long-haul travel. The research predicted the US market would reach 2019 levels of travel to Europe next year.

Travel from China to European destinations is expected to remain “60-70% lower” than pre-pandemic levels in 2023. However, the report added: “In the upside scenario of more rapidly restored capacity and confidence, Chinese travel is expected to be 50% lower this year than in 2019.”

China accounted for 10% of long-haul travel to Europe in 2019 and full recovery to 2019 levels is not anticipated until 2026.

Tom Jenkins, European Tourism Association chief executive, said regaining Chinese visitors was very important.

“The arrival of the Chinese visitors transformed some destinations in Europe,” he said. 

“Their absence since 2019 has been sorely missed. The anticipated return of real volumes in 2024 enables these destinations to invest again in the services that these clients need.” 

However, he said barriers remained. “Increased fuel costs, reduced capacity in Europe, the issuance of passports and the global political situation: all these count against a full recovery.

“So where we can do the right thing, we should. Visas must be simplified and issued promptly. Testing requirements, particularly when medically unnecessary, should be eased. Every effort must be made to make these visitors welcome.”

India and Brazil are tipped to grow faster following “robust growth” during 2022.

In 2019, India provided 5% of long-haul travel to Europe and Brazil 3%. 

The report said: “The importance of these markets varies considerably by destination, and this recovery will be very valuable in some places – for example, Brazilian travel is more concentrated in Portugal.”

Travel from both countries is set to be 20-30% lower than 2019 levels in 2023 and should regain pre-pandemic levels during 2025, the report said.