Industry experts debated these topics – and more – at TTG’s Agenda 2023 Autumn Breakfast in London on Tuesday (26 September), held in partnership with PwC.

We’ve rounded up the key takeaways, predictions and issues to watch out for in the months ahead.

Demand is there – but we need a Plan B

Despite understandable concerns for airline and airport disruption, the sense across the panel was that demand for travelling and holidays outstripped those fears – but there was caution.

“The overarching urge for customers to travel seems to trump any concerns for disruption to travel…at the moment,” said Gary Gillespie, managing director of Independent Travel Experts.

“But that might well change, because I don’t think we’ve seen the end of travel disruption, so I think we need to think about putting contingency plans in place to look at what we can do to mitigate that risk.”

The Travel Corporation’s EMEA managing director Kelly Jackson echoed this sentiment. “I’m lying if I said we weren’t sick of [the disruption] – and the damage it does to our business, but I think we’ve become experts at plan B and contingency plans.”

Can consumers afford to keep spending?

PwC UK’s hospitality, travel and leisure leader Rick Jones was clear on where travel was in the consumer pecking order: “The priority of travel within household finances is right at the top.”

Despite this, a sizeable minority are sitting on the fence over if – and how much – they will spend on a holiday next year, with 17% of consumers surveyed by TTG and PwC uncertain about when they will book their 2024 summer break, and 15% cautious over calling whether they will up their spend compared to 2023.

The question of if people can afford to take a holiday "is still a barrier for consumers," PwC partner Eleanor Scott said.

“There is a word of caution for the mid-income and mid-market. Demand is there, but what will they be able to afford? Expect consumers to be ’waiting and seeing’, which may impact booking profiles next year.”

Will January’s peak still be as high?

The research revealed the continued polarisation between consumers who have booked – or who plan to book – their 2024 summer holidays in 2023, versus those not looking to get their holiday plans off the ground until spring 2024 at the earliest.

Earlier booking tended to come from older consumers and those with higher incomes, while in a trend echoing the rest of the research and 2023 so far, the longer wait time was seen more in the middle age, middle income demographic.

But the turn-of-year peak remains, according to both the consumer survey and the panel, with 16% of respondents intending to book in January, February or March. Jones said: “It’s not as high a peak as it once was – but January is still a peak booking month – 16% [from the survey] looks reasonable.”

Gillespie added: “All you can do is plan and prepare for peaks so you’re set up for success. Back in the day, 25% of ITE’s business would come in January and February, so 16% [as per the research] would be a way off. Yet this January just gone, ITE had our biggest sales month ever – so we know the market is there.”

The ’unprecedented’ appetite for investing in travel

One revelation across the panel was the “amazing” interest from private equity firms in the travel sector at the moment, with a busy mergers and acquisitions market expected post-peaks in 2024. 

“There’s always a seasonal element in travel, but in 2024, more than ever," said PwC’s Jones. “That raises a few questions. First of all, how do you play January and February peaks into that process? But also how do you differentiate the story about your business, its raison d’etre and its uniqueness, rather than being ‘just another travel business’?

“Investors are looking at the sector again; we’re increasingly having conversations with private equity investors looking to invest in the space. They’ve got the wind in their sails. A key thing that investors look for is growth, and there is in-built growth both in the market and in people taking market share – the two together are very powerful."

White Hart Associates’ head of travel and leisure Chris Photi agreed: “There’s a lot of private equity firms that have held investments for quite a long time and now there’s wind in the sails; they’re thinking this could be a good time to come to the market and move their investment on.”

Will the ’big three’ become the big four – or five?

With confirmation of September Atol renewals imminent, the panel assessed the position of the ‘big three’ operators in the market – Jet2holidays, Tui and easyJet holidays – over the next year.

Photi was adamant: “It’s no secret that Booking.com is the coming player when you look at the Atol league table – I think they’ll be the largest seller of flight package holidays in the UK market in the next two or three years.”

“Young people adore [Booking.com’s] hotel platform – and if they replicate that with flights, it’s going to be a winner.”

EasyJet holidays was acknowledged as racing up the table, but Photi highlighted why he thinks the market will change.

“The big two might find themselves running back a bit. The OTAs are still surging – loveholidays has been a big winner in the last year or two.

He acknowledged the “amazing success story” of Jet2Holidays over the past 10 years, but alternative players are waiting in the wings to eat into their market, he added.

The importance of becoming an attractive employer

With recruitment and staff shortages topping the list of concerns for operators when it came to their businesses, particularly at a time when the service provided to customers is of utmost importance, the panel were quizzed on how they were bringing talent into their organisations.

Jackson highlighted how The Travel Corporation has been reviewing its benefits offer, including wellness, training programmes and offering volunteering and working-from-anywhere options for staff.

“Making sure we are an attractive place to work is definitely a top priority for 2024. Do we have the answers yet? No,” she said.

Gillespie said ITE parent company The Travel Network Group had had to similarly review what it offers employees. "We’ve had to offer hybrid working in our office, which we never considered before, and look at benchmarking to make sure salaries were on par with what they could get compared to other sectors," he revealed. 

Gillespie acknowledged a steady number of homeworkers joining Independent Travel Experts over the past 18 months, but said he still saw “that underlying dread of coming back into travel”, partly owing to the negative coverage of the industry in the media. 

“There’s definitely a lot more optimism, particularly people wanting to be homeworkers, and success among those that have got retail premises recruiting," he said.

Gillespie highlighted that one of the training courses offered by the group in its new academy focused on recruitment.

“We’ve also launched a training academy and one of the courses is on recruitment for members, working closely with a consultant, including hints and tips on how to write a really exciting and sexy job description, to attract new recruits.”