Issued this week, the committee’s 2023 progress report on Wednesday (28 June) reveals members’ faith in the UK meeting its 2030 targets has diminished over the past year.

It singles out the government – in particular – for criticism, for failing to create the conditions necessary to encourage and facilitate change in sectors like aviation, which has a relatively high carbon output.

CCC researchers said government action on achieving a near-70% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2030 has been “worryingly slow”, with departments failing to heed previous CCC recommendations.

“There is a worrying hesitancy by ministers to lead the country to the next stage of net-zero commitments,” said CCC chair Lord Deben. “I urge the government to regroup on net-zero and commit to bolder delivery.”

’High-risk approach’

Aviation has come under particularly heavy fire as one of the UK’s largest producers of CO2 emissions, contributing 7% of the UK’s total emissions.

The sector produced the equivalent of 29 million tonnes of carbon dioxide last year – nearly double (95%) the amount produced in 2021, owing to resurgent demand for post-Covid travel, although this is still 25% below 2019 levels.

However, the report criticises the government’s high-risk approach in this area, one it said was exemplified by its Jet Zero Strategy. Published last year, the strategy’s aim is to decarbonise aviation by 2050 through efficiencies, and by accelerating the uptake of new technologies such as sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) and zero-emission flights.

The CCC said the strategy was extremely high-risk as it relies mainly on not yet fully developed technologies. It also criticised government for publishing the report without a policy framework to ensure CO2 reductions can be achieved if the necessary tools or developments are not yet available or in use, or if there are domestic or international supply chain constraints.

The government’s decision to review the strategy every five years, researchers said, also poses problems because it doesn’t provide sufficient time to implement mitigations. The committee has also called on ministers to implement a demand management strategy using digital technologies, and to lower the cost of domestic rail travel.

The government predicts air travel will surge by 70% to 482 million annual passengers by 2050, going against the CCC’s own forecast of 25% growth to 365 million annual travellers per year, which it said would not require any further airport expansion.

The committee has therefore urged ministers to block any plans to allow airports to expand until there is a UK-wide capacity management framework in place to assess CO2 levels.

Earlier this year, Heathrow said it was continuing to pursue expansion via a third runway, while Luton is seeking permission to almost double passenger numbers from 18 million a year to 32 million. Gatwick, meanwhile, wants to bring its existing northern runway into regular use to grow passenger numbers to 75 million a year by 2038. London City, Bristol and Leeds Bradford airports are all exploring expansion too.

“A capacity-management framework would allow expansion decisions to be made in line with the aviation sector’s decarbonisation pathway and in collaboration with the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish governments,” read the report.

To help the aviation sector meet its environmental goals, the CCC has set out a series of recommendations, urging the Department for Transport (DfT) to ensure the UK’s SAF mandate – which aims for 10% of aviation fuel to be produced from renewable sources by 2030 – is legislated in time to become operational by 2025.

The CCC has also called on government to bring greenhouse gas removers into the mandate, while making sure sustainable fuels don’t have a harmful non-CO2 impact on the environment.

Other recommendations include ensuring no credits from the international emission trading scheme (ETS), Corsia, are used for flights covered by the UK’s own ETS, as well as monitoring both the sector’s non-CO2 effects and seat occupancy to 2027.

Industry pushes back

While green groups such as Transport and Environment, which has previously branded the government’s Jet Zero Strategy a “licence to pollute”, have welcomed the report, its release has caused a stir throughout the industry. Airport Operators Association (AOA) chief executive Karen Dee said banning airports from expanding “would damage the UK’s economic future and deter investment from the UK".

Her words were echoed by Matt Gorman, chair of airline trade body Sustainable Aviation, who told TTG the UK aviation industry “is more confident than ever” it can decarbonise without hampering growth. “Our analysis shows the UK has sufficient feedstock potential to support the delivery of a 10% SAF mandate by 2030, significantly greater than the CCC’s assumptions in their latest Balanced Pathway,” he said.

Nevertheless, both Dee and Gorman agreed there needs to be better collaboration with the government on climate and decarbonisation issues, as well as a set of policies that can foster change. “By adopting this approach, we can deliver our net-zero ambitions while also ensuring people can continue to enjoy the many and varied benefits that aviation delivers,” Dee added.