Kevin O’Toole, chief strategy officer of aviation analytics specialist Cirium, told an aviation trends panel at WTM London the industry has still not returned to full strength following the pandemic.
“The bust has been deeper and longer than any in aviation history,” said O’Toole. By way of comparison, he told delegates the September 11 attacks prompted a 3% decline in one year, “followed by a couple of years to get back”, unlike the Covid era.
Cirium estimates the number of passengers globally in August 2024 hit a new peak compared with 2019. “It nearly hit it in 2023, but the number of flights is still below 2019," said O’Toole, who explained capacity shortages meant revenues had grown. This, however, he said was "just beginning to flatten".
O’Toole said the recovery had been “very uneven”. In Europe, difficulties with returning aircraft to the skies meant 2023 had not quite hit a peak compared with 2019. “2024 will be up, almost certainly,” he predicted.
One trend was fewer business class seats caused by the contraction in corporate travel. This meant some fares had “nearly doubled”. Business travel was also constricted because of new sustainability reporting requirements, he said.
“We are slightly below peak emissions but very close to coming back and that’s very frightening for corporates," said O’Toole. "Next year, they have to show reduction and mitigation, so it’s a very big issue.”
However, he said new aircraft fleets meant CO2 emissions per passenger were down by 6%, although he warned the industry needed “full aircraft with more seats” to continue this trend and fare offers "much closer to demand in the market" rather than simply putting on more capacity in the hope it gets filled.
"We have to pay for the full cost of our travel, including the cost of the carbon," he added. "That has to happen – maybe we have had it easy for too long."
