Prior to Covid, UK arrivals stood at 4.8 million. By 2021, that had plunged to just 460,000, However, since the US border reopened to international visitors last November, numbers have recovered strongly.
Speaking at Brand USA Europe Travel Week in Frankfurt, Brand USA chief marketing officer Tom Garzilli said UK arrivals were predicted to recover to 3.1 million this year.
However, Garzilli said he believed the total would be higher owing to strong recent demand after a slow start to the year, demand that will continue into 2023.
"The demand is there," he said. “It’s really the capacity catching up to the demand. That’s why I am bullish about getting back pretty quickly. It may not be right now, but it’s starting to grow.”
Garzilli said while airlines were putting flights back, it generally took a few months for bookings to catch up with capacity.
On the rebound to pre-Covid visitor levels, Garzilli said: “We’re bullish, we’re going to be in that realm next year. As long as the capacity is there, people are going to want to travel and they will travel.”
He noted concerns such as the pound’s weakness against the dollar and high interest rates impacting visitors’ finances. “Headwinds are going to be there but people who want to travel will find a way. I think that may limit how much they spend and how long they stay, but I think people will still travel.”
Transatlantic travel is not expected to return to 2019 levels before 2024 or 2025, tourism researchers told delegates. While it has already recovered to 80% of that, 2023 will not see a complete recovery according to WTTC head of research Nejc Jus and David Goodger, managing director Europe and Middle East at Tourism Economics.
Goodger said pricing and exchange rates would deter some sectors and push back travel plans. However, he said people were staying longer and spending more, so the forecast was for recovery in the number of visits by 2025 and in spending by 2024.
Jus added: “In terms of the Europe return, we see 2024/25 as well, but this can change on a number of issues.” These, he said, included the staff shortages travellers had experienced this year and capacity issues.
Brand USA, said Garzilli, is looking at UK trade events early next year.
