President and chief executive Roger Dow said he expected an "uneven" recovery after the country’s 20-month border closure, which was finally ended last week (Monday 8 November).

The association’s biannual forecast, issued on Monday (15 November), highlights how US domestic leisure travel has already returned to near pre-pandemic levels.

"The forecast, based on analysis from Tourism Economics, projects domestic leisure travel will continue to drive the US travel industry’s recovery in the near term," said the association.

"This segment is projected to surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and beyond."

US domestic business travel spend is expected to exceed three-quarters (76%) of 2019 levels next year, but not to fully recover until 2024.

International inbound travel spend, meanwhile, is expected to reach 72% of 2019 levels next year, but is not expected to fully recover "until 2024 or 2025".

“While we see much reason for optimism on the horizon, our forecast reveals that travel’s recovery is uneven with much work ahead to ensure all segments reach pre-pandemic levels,” said Dow.

’Stabilising policies’

However, he added there were things that could be done to speed up the recovery. “We believe the US can implement smart, effective policies that bring back international visitors more quickly and spur business and professional travel to accelerate an economic and jobs rebound.”

These policies include: fully reopening and resuming visitor visa processing at US embassies and consulates; ensuring border authorities are adequately resourced; providing emergency funding to US destination marketing organisation Brand USA; and offering temporary tax credits to boost demand for in-person meetings and events.

“Stabilising policies can help ensure a more even recovery as we aim to restore the US as the top destination in the world for global travellers,” said Dow.