The European Travel Commission’s latest quarterly report describes the UK market as “muted”, with only 30% of destinations showing growth in British visitor numbers in the first half of 2023 compared to 2019.

Out of 31 destinations, arrivals from the UK were on average 6% below pre-pandemic levels, with the number of nights spent in them down 7.5%.

Turkey and Montenegro are the big winners, both up 50% in terms of arrivals. The report said: “It is not a coincidence that both the top destinations for growth in arrivals from Britain are also two of the most affordable destinations in Europe.

“Value for money will be a bigger factor for British tourists this year than it will be for other countries within Europe as it is predicated the UK will have one of the highest levels of inflation within Western Europe this year.

“This trend is already visible in the off-peak travel season, but when prices start to rise higher in peak-summer season (late June–August), it is likely that this trend will intensify.”

Data shows UK arrivals in Greece are slightly up on 2019, but Spain’s are down around 10%.

The report predicts UK inflation will fall to 8.2% in the second half of this year, while sterling will gain 5.5% on the euro.

It also gives a pan-European picture of travel demand, estimating that in the first quarter of 2023, Europe had recovered to about 95% of 2019 levels of international tourist arrivals. “Strong travel enthusiasm has supported this recovery despite stubborn inflation and higher living costs straining consumers’ wallets,” it said.

One in four reporting destinations surpassed pre-pandemic levels of foreign tourist arrivals, including Serbia (+27%), Bulgaria (+21%), Montenegro (+12%) and Turkey (+9%). Turkey and Serbia have benefited particularly from the number of Russian visitors unable to travel elsewhere.

Only five of 27 destinations registered falls in foreign arrivals of 20% or more compared to 2019. These included Hungary (-20%), Germany (-21%), Finland (-22%), Lithuania (-28%) and Latvia (-32%).

Air ticket sales in Europe have reached 91% of 2019 levels, while the US has proved Europe’s strongest long-haul source market.

Airlines have over 50,000 transatlantic flights into Europe scheduled from June to August this year, reaching the highest levels since 2018. However, despite this, return fares are up 35% from last year and 24% from pre-pandemic levels.