Some five million passengers travelled through Heathrow in April, with the airport chalking the latest uptick down to Brits cashing in airline vouchers accrued during the pandemic. Heathrow said this was "driving the recovery in passenger demand", demand it expected "to last throughout the summer".

Heathrow has upped its 2022 passenger forecast from 45.5 million to nearly 53 million as a result. However, Holland-Kaye on Tuesday (10 April) fired another warning shot at the CAA, urging the authority to ensure its allowed Heathrow to charge passenger fees sufficient to allow it to keep converting pent up demand for travel.

"The CAA is in the final stages of setting Heathrow’s airport charge for the next five years," said Heathrow. "It should be aiming to set a charge that can deliver the investments passengers want with affordable private financing while withstanding the shocks which are undoubtedly to come."

Last year, Heathrow proposed – at most – almost doubling the fees it charges, with the CAA permitting a 56% rise in the short-term. A new settlement is due this summer. Heathrow said its proposals would result in a less than 2% increase in air ticket prices.

"We have proposed an option for the CAA to lower fees by a further £8 and to repay airlines a cash rebate if more people travel than expected," said Heathrow. "We urge the CAA to carefully consider this common sense approach and avoid chasing the low-quality plan being pushed by some airlines which will only result in the return of longer queues and more frequent delays for passengers."

Airlines UK, the trade body for UK registered airlines, has been critical of Heathrow’s demand for a higher fees threshold. Following publication of a report into the post-pandemic recovery of the UK’s aviation sector by parliament’s transport committee, which discussed the fees, Airlines UK said it was right ministers called for any increase in the fee settlement to be based on "accurate demand forecasts".

Chief executive Tim Alderslade said the CAA must be acutely "alive to" Heathrow’s own agenda, adding it was vital it got its decision right with the settlement due to last for the next five years.

Over Easter, Heathrow said 97% of passengers cleared security within 10 minutes. It plans to reopen Terminal 4 by July and recruit up to 1,000 new security officers, potentially abetted by government proposals to ease the security hoops new employees must jump through before starting their training.

Other headwinds, said Heathrow, included the war in Ukraine, higher fuel costs, lingering Covid travel restrictions in some key markets and the potential for future variants of concern to emerge.

’Realistic’

"Together with last week’s warning from the Bank of England that inflation is set to pass 10% and that the UK economy will likely ‘slide into recession’ means we are taking a realistic assessment that travel demand will reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels overall for the year," said Heathrow.

"Heathrow’s largest carrier British Airways announced last week that it is expecting a return to only 74% of pre-pandemic travel this year – just 9% more than Heathrow’s forecasts."

The airport expects to remain lossmaking this year. Holland-Kaye added: “We all want to see travel get back to pre-pandemic levels as quickly as possible, and while I am encouraged by the rise in passenger numbers, we also have to be realistic.

"There are significant challenges ahead – the CAA can either plan for them with a robust and adaptable regulatory settlement that delivers for passengers and withstands any shocks, or it can prioritise airline profits by cutting back on passenger service leaving the industry to scramble when things go wrong in future."