Jonathan Hinkles said shifts in corporate travel demand would affect how airlines did their planning.
“I think we will see a slightly smaller domestic market with different splits,” he said, explaining there may be fewer early-morning services and more need to take connecting flights.
Hinkles, Loganair’s chief executive, said the Zoom culture “was going to stick”. Industries such as maritime, oil and gas “have to be there”, but he said some service sector industries are “just not going to come back”.
Speaking at Airlines 2021, Hinkles said an increase in domestic leisure travel would “probably not” compensate for this and he was planning accordingly.
“You see some very, very different travel patterns now; there is almost reverse commuting – instead of living in Birmingham and going to the Highlands it’s the reverse. There’s not so much focus on early mornings and late evenings, our Southampton peak is 10.30am.
“It really makes schedule planning a different art. I think the rulebook has gone out of the window, probably never to return.”
Loganair would provide more one-stop connectivity where demand had fallen for non-stop services with, for example, its Channel Islands partner Blue Islands, he said.
Hinkles was sceptical of the planned relaunch of Flybe, saying much of its former routes had already been replaced.
“There is a much smaller level of business travel in the market. There are very few markets left unserved that need to be served.”
He said the revival was “like watching the first five minutes of [TV hospital drama] Casualty – you know something is going to happen, you know it is not going to be good but you just don’t know when.”
He added: “Time will tell.”