Addressing the Abta Convention in Majorca on Tuesday (7 September), Jet2holidays chief executive Steve Heapy told delegates that while there had been "some shift" into shoulder periods, it was unclear whether this was being influenced by climate or cost – noting the shoulder seasons tend to be cheaper.
Speaking during the same panel, Tui UK and Ireland managing director Neil Swanson said the operator wasn't seeing significant change in booking habits at the moment, stressing the most common shift was families moving their holiday plans into the half-term periods flanking the summer.
Heapy and Swanson's comments came after Abta's latest Holiday habits research underlined the enduring value of package holidays and some evidence of growing demand for shoulder season travel.
Abta's findings reveal nearly two-thirds (61%) of people who travelled abroad in the past 12 months booked a package – level with 2023 (61%) and down just 1% on last year's figure (62%).
This stat, however, rises significantly among some of travel's most price sensitive cohorts such as families; 78% of families with children under the age of five booked a package over the past year, and 70% of families with children over the age of five.
Value also remains the top reason for booking a package, cited by 43% of the 2,001 respondents to Abta's Holiday Habits survey. This is down slightly from 44% last year but is up from 2023's 42%, with value being the top reason for booking a package in all three years.
This year's data also highlighted a dramatic uptick in package demand from another price sensitive cohort, those aged 18 to 24 years old, 47% of whom told Abta value was their top reason for booking a package, up from 35% last year.
Abta said its latest research also highlighted "a trend over the past few years towards more shoulder season travel".
Respondents telling Abta they planned to travel in April (15%) and in June (18%) have gone up by two and three percentage points respectively over the past year, while those with September travel plans have increased by two percentage points to 17%.
These trends were more pronounced among those without children; 22% of adults over the age of 45 without children plan to travel in September (22%) and May (21%) to take advantage, Abta said, of cooler, less busy travel periods.
'People want to go away to hot countries'
Convention moderator Jonathan Samuels, Sky News, asked both Swanson and Heapy what impact, if any, climate change has had on travel to Europe so far, noting summer 2024 was Europe – and the world's – hottest on record. Both leaders stated, for their record, their belief in climate change.
"It's happening, isn't it?" said Swanson. "What we're not seeing is people changing massively at the moment. We are seeing families moving into half-terms around that summer period. But whether there's a financial element rather than a climate element in that [I don't know].
"We have seen a big growth in lakes and mountains for us, but that's off a much lower base. I think people still want that Mediterranean holiday in those summer months. Has that evolved? All businesses need to evolve with that and evolve their product offering."
Asked if Jet2 was seeing more shoulder season travel or demand for cooler destinations, Heapy said: "A little bit. But I think a lot of people want to get away in the sun.
"I live in Manchester. It's cold and wet most of the year. I want to get away and if it's sunny and hot, great. I'm not sure there's this massive shift to cooler destinations.
"There has been some shift into the shoulder periods. But whether that's influenced by climate or cost – the shoulder seasons are cheaper – I don't know and I don't think there's enough research being done on that.
"I think the climate is changing. You can't dispute that. I also think customer happiness may be changing a little bit. Whether that's what it's all about, I don't know. People want to go away to hot countries. Our aircraft, in the peak season when at it's hottest, we're full."
