Speaking to Sky News presenter Jonathan Samuels at the Travel Convention in Madeira on Tuesday (13 October), Tanzer acknowledged the impact of geopolitical conflict, rising costs and uncertainty, but said the surge in very-late bookings this summer meant there were grounds for optimism.

“It’s been a stop-start year, but the market did come back in the summer with late bookings, which is good,” he said.

Tanzer highlighted Abta's latest Holiday Habits report, which revealed 70% of people intend to travel abroad next year – just one percentage point lower than last year.

He hailed this good news for travel agents. “Our research shows that if you have got disruption, people tend to go back towards using travel professionals to organise their holidays," he said. "So that’s a positive."

Tanzer warned jet fuel prices could rise by as much as 20% over the next 12 months, and that the current geopolitical uncertainty was unlikely to conclude any time soon.

But the impact was complex, he said, with the Iran war prompting some consumers to switch destinations, with Portugal among those benefiting from a shift away from the eastern Mediterranean.

Despite the challenges of introducing the EES system this year, Tanzer said the new system would ultimately make border crossings easier.

He also urged delegates to see the opportunities in artificial intelligence and more sustainable approaches to tourism, although he stressed technology cannot replace the human touch.

“Those soft skills and human interaction and ability to respond to changes and concerns are absolutely critical for us,” he said.