A new report, Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and Beyond, warns the tourism industry cannot “blindly” continue hoping technology and offsetting will help it reach net zero emission targets.
By 2030, the Foundation envisages air tickets will need to be two-thirds more expensive than 2019 levels in real terms “due to a temporary tax that helps to generate the investments in new technology R&D, updating fleets, generating subsidies for rail and bus and developing the production capacity for the more expensive e-fuels”.
It warned that by 2050, air tickets could be “around three times the cost when compared to 2019”.
The report’s authors stress they are not prescribing any measures to decarbonise the industry “but to provide a realistic assessment of what needs to be done and how it will change the shape of tourism”.
They added: “To continue with business as usual and fall far short of emissions targets, is not an option to be seriously entertained.”
The report also recommended limiting airport capacity to curb emissions but said this will “still allow for 19% growth in the number of flights compared to 2019”. However, in this scenario, there are fewer long-haul flights, meaning overall passenger kilometres travelled by air increases only 2%. “This restriction is necessary because of the limited availability of e-fuels,” it said.
The Foundation envisages short-haul trips by air - 69% of all trips in 2019 - will make up 82% by 2050, with long-haul falling from 6% to 3.5%.
The report warned the industry is “at a fork in the road, with two distinct options ahead: decouple tourism from emissions, by doing all that is possible to bring about net zero trips and prioritise these over the most polluting trips or accept the need to curb the global tourism system as a whole”.
It added: “The second option is not just worse for individuals who wish to see the world, but for the destinations and businesses that are currently dependent on international visitation and wish to use it as a tool for sustainable development. A third scenario, to continue with business as usual and fall far short of emissions targets, is not an option to be seriously entertained.”
The report’s modelling shows emissions from longest-haul flights will quadruple by 2050, accounting for 41% of tourism’s total emissions but only 4% of trips.
It omits cruising but said: “Cruises are currently a small part of the tourism system and less than 1% of direct emissions but in general, with some river and sailing cruises providing notable exceptions, they have an extremely high individual footprint which is not at all compatible with the Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario.”
Travel Foundation chief executive Jeremy Sampson concluded: “We have delayed action for too long, and as a result, our options have narrowed. This assessment should act both as wakeup call and motivation to act.”
