The ETC said the rebound “is expected to continue well into 2023, though at a slower pace”. It added: “Looking forward, international travel to Europe is forecast to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2025, while domestic travel will fully recover in 2024.”
The ETC’s European Tourism: Trends & Prospects report for the fourth quarter of 2022 said pent-up demand and “excess savings” were behind the 2022 uptick. However, it warned that in the UK, “high inflation will eat into household spending power this year,” with another issue being the £500 reduction in the energy price guarantee in April.
The report added: “As a result, we expect real household income to fall by more than 4.5%.” The ETC said any excess savings could wiped out by mortgage increases.
Luis Araujo, ETC president, said: “Looking forward to 2023, we expect the tourism sector in Europe to continue its strong rebound. As European short-haul travel is well on its way to recovery, the tourism industry’s attention has now turned to long-haul arrivals. In welcome news, we can expect the long-awaited return of Asia Pacific visitors in the coming months.”
The ETC data revealed that compared to 2019, almost half of reporting destinations have recovered more than 80% of their pre-pandemic foreign arrivals.
It said: “Overall, southern Mediterranean destinations posted the fastest recovery as the year ended. High prices spurred the attractiveness of more affordable destinations, with holidaymakers flocking to Turkey (-2%) to benefit from a weaker lira. Luxembourg (-4%), Serbia (-6%), Greece (-6%), and Portugal (-7%) are also approaching 2019 levels.
“The slowest destinations to recover were in Eastern Europe due to the war in Ukraine and lack of Russian visitors to destinations heavily reliant on this market. Sharpest declines are observed in Finland (-38%), Lithuania, Latvia, and Romania (all -42%).”
The report predicts the return of travellers from Asia Pacific countries to Europe in 2023. It said: “In particular, encouraging news came in December with the end of the three-year-old “zero-Covid” policy in China. Experts anticipate a gradual return of Chinese travellers to Europe from the second quarter of 2023, as significant barriers remain.
“The logistics around restoring flight routes to reconnect China to the rest of the world will require time. Furthermore, most Chinese travellers will need to acquire a visa to travel and many may need to renew their passports.”
The report adds transatlantic travel to Europe is expected to be popular, thanks to fewer travel restrictions and the strength of the dollar against the euro.
“Based on year-to-date data, almost one in four of reporting destinations saw US arrivals exceed 2019 levels,” the report said.
“Arrivals from this market to Europe are 25% below 2019 levels in 2022 and are expected to recover 82% of 2019 volumes in 2023. Canada is performing similarly to the US, if a little weaker, with arrivals from Canada to Europe looking to be 28% below 2019 levels in 2023.”
