The trade had been enjoying an extended peaks period in January and February as the UK and other countries eased their Covid restrictions when Russia invaded its neighbour. Speaking the hours that followed, agents and operators told TTG any “pause” in bookings because of the Ukraine crisis would hopefully be short-lived.

Tony Mann, director of Idle Travel, admitted he had been waiting with “bated breath” to see how customers reacted to the news, but did not face a barrage of calls on the day war broke out. “In the areas we’re selling, it hopefully won’t have an effect on business,” he said. “Travel will always face something.”

Gemma Antrobus, owner of Haslemere Travel, said she would monitor the situation to see if the conflict had any impact on customers’ trips. “I don’t anticipate it causing disruption to many of the destinations we send clients to,” she said. “It’s not going to impact a client going to the Maldives. We’ve dealt with so much over the past two years, I think we will just pivot and act on whatever happens.”

Graeme Brett, director of Westoe Travel, warned about the potentially negative impact of media – both news and social – around travel. “As an industry, we need Abta and the consortia to be on the front foot, reassuring people it is safe to travel, rather than reacting to bad stories,” he said.

Advantage Travel Partnership’s members did not see a wave of clients wanting to move bookings either as the conflict started. Leisure director Kelly Cookes added: “I think it’s probably too early to see any trading impact. We’ve been through a lot, so we’re resilient, but any kind of uncertainty impacts confidence.”

Industry veteran and Sunvil chairman Noel Josephides, who has operated through the Gulf and Iraq wars and 9/11 during his career, said that while people might “pause” before booking their holidays, he remained confident about the year ahead. “Bookings have been building in a steady flow in January and February,” he said.

The impact on consumer confidence will be the key factor, added Alan Bowen, legal advisor to the Association of Atol Companies. “This isn’t going to help at all – the question is whether the public gets spooked by events and the headlines,” he said. “Will it affect confidence to book? We’ve got to realise, at least in the very short-term, that we may see some reluctance to book.”

Bowen added the pronounced late-booking trend for holidays was likely to continue throughout 2022 “irrespective of Ukraine”.

’Capacity control’

Travel will, nonetheless, have to deal with some effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in the months to come. Oil price rises, flight re-routings and the closure of some destinations to UK visitors will all impact now and in the coming months. Oil prices jumped to more than $100 a barrel in the hours following Russia’s invasion, a one-third increase year-on-year.

This will filter through to travel prices in the coming months, especially after Boris Johnson immediately declared plans to “cease the dependence on Russian oil and gas”.

Ukrainian airspace was closed, while EU nations as well as the UK have closed their airspace to Russian carriers, but a longer-term worry is the possibility of disruption to Russian airspace, used for flights from the UK and Europe to Asia. Finnair said: “The shortcut between Asia and Europe is important for many reasons.”

Finnair paused flights earlier this week to China, Japan and South Korea until Sunday 6 March. It will restart its four-times-weekly Tokyo route next week, flying a longer 13-hour route.

Agents and operators were divided over what the effect on bookings would be, but still predicted a good summer 2022. “We have a big map behind us in the shop, so I have no doubt people will start to look how close they are to that region when they’re thinking about booking somewhere,” Mann cautioned.

Josephides added capacity would be a key factor. “Price rises are not necessarily caused by hotel rates and the price of oil, but by the fact that discounting is not necessary. If the industry maintains a tight grip on capacity, then the prospects are for an exceptional year.”