The association expects production to reach 69 billion litres by 2028, with production covering Europe, North America and Asia Pacific. In comparison, United Airlines currently uses around 18 billion litres of fuel a year. Iata director general Willie Walsh said governments needed to offer incentives and approve diverse methods of SAF production.
“With these two measures successfully in place, we can be confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be realistically aligned with our recently published roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by 2050," said Walsh. "That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62% of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050."
Iata estimates that in 2022, SAF production tripled to 300 million litres. It said more than 130 renewable fuel projects had been announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries.
“Each of these projects has either announced the intent or commitment to produce SAF within their wider product slate of renewable fuels," said the association. "Typically, there is a three to five-year lag between a project announcement and its commercialisation date. This implies that further renewable fuel capacity out until 2030 could still be announced over the following years."
Iata added: “If renewable energy production reaches 69 billion litres by 2028 as estimated, the trajectory to 100 billion litres by 2030 would be on track. If just 30% of that produced SAF, the industry could achieve 30 billion litres of SAF production by 2030.”
Separately, Iata has backed a series of roadmaps covering SAF, fuel infrastructure, operations and finance.
“Policy is particularly important early on as it, to a large extent, sets the scene for private sector investors to move,’ said Marie Owens Thomsen, Iata’s senior vice president sustainability and chief economist. "With that, the private sector can decarbonise at scale and with speed."
Priorities include developing more efficient aircraft and engines which can be powered fully by SAF, hydrogen or batteries, and using renewable energy and new fuels to power the wider supply chain.
Other aims range from scaling up automation, big data management and new technologies to operate existing aircraft and utilise airspace in a more energy efficient manner, and ensuring policies are aligned globally to support and incentivise aviation’s transition to net-zero.
"As with all other successful energy transitions, collaboration between governments and industry stakeholders is crucial in creating the necessary framework to achieve the decarbonisation goals," said Iata.
The association estimates aviation’s transition to net zero by 2050 will cost a cumulative $5 trillion, covering technological advancements, infrastructure developments and operational improvements.
