October is the perfect time for the travel sector's annual health check.

Summer is over, attention is turning to peaks, and the September Atol renewal data is here to offer clues about the outbound package market's confidence and capacity.

So we've snapped on the rubber gloves, and we're ready to have a rummage.

'Try to relax'

Atol capacity hit another high watermark at the September 2025 renewal. Total passenger authorisations increased by another 1.4 million – 4.3% – meaning a whopping 34.8 million people can take an Atol-protected holiday next year. That's half the current UK population! The other half will have to stay at home and water the plants.

Meanwhile, the number of Atol holding companies has barely changed over the past 12 months. There are 1,588 this year compared with 1,582 in 2024, suggesting the market has plateaued after several years of turbulence.

'You might feel a bit of pressure'

The total market may be growing, but under the microscope, the picture is a bit more nuanced. As in previous years, the growth has mainly come from a small number of large operators.

EasyJet holidays was the standout mover in this renewal, adding 400,000 passengers to cement its position among the top five Atol holders. It now accounts for 10% of the total package market. There was noteworthy growth from Tui (91,000), Expedia (82,000) and Trip.com (66,000).

(Credit: Travel Trade Consultancy)

Meanwhile, smaller operators continue to find it challenging. This is the fifth consecutive renewal where passenger numbers outside the top 20 have fallen. This year, though, the decline slowed to just 0.7%, suggesting some stabilisation.

As a consequence of these diverging growth paths, consolidation continues at pace. The top 20 Atol holders have once again increased their share to 86% of the package market, while the top three – Jet2holidays, Tui and Loveholidays – now control 52%.

'We'll need a sample'

The latest data hints at a quiet seasonal rebalancing. Among the top 20, the December 2025 quarter is predicted to be flat, and the main summer 2026 quarter is up by just 2%.

Instead, growth is focused on the March 2026 quarter as operators push the shoulder seasons harder with winter sun, sports and city breaks.

Conversely, smaller operators seem more upbeat about the near-term December 2025 and March 2026 quarters, which are up by 2% and 4% respectively. But they’re projecting declines in June 2026 and September 2026, possibly reflecting a lack of long-term visibility as a result of the later booking trend.

'...and cough'

So the vital signs look good. The latest Atol data paints a picture of cautious confidence and strategic realignment in response to subtle changes in the shape of seasonal demand.

But as the giants get bigger, and the market continues to consolidate, the middle ground could get uncomfortable.

I'll book you in for the same time next year. Until then, if you’d like to follow the journey of the top 20 Atol holders over the last 12 years, take a look at our interactive graph.

Martin Alcock is a director of the Travel Trade Consultancy.