Geoff Freeman, the association's president and chief executive, said perceptions that the US is unwelcoming and could potentially detain visitors were hampering sales.
"The US will be the only nation in the world this year to see a reduction in travel,” Freeman told the recent Phocuswright conference in San Diego.
"People are now thinking about coming to the US the way many of us thought about going to China – wiping devices, fearing detention. That’s really concerning."
Freeman highlighted a 25% fall in visitors from Canada and the funding crisis at Brand USA, which saw a budget cut of $80 million earlier this year, although legislation has been introduced to restore it.
He cautioned marketing alone would not solve the problem. “Travellers know we have beautiful attractions," Freeman continued. "What they don’t know is that they are welcome.”
He also warned US policy was driving travellers towards other destinations. “We don’t understand that we are in a competition,” he said.
Freeman was speaking during a week in which the US was placed in the spotlight in the UK by Scotland's qualification for the 2026 Fifa World Cup, which the US will co-host together with Canada and Mexico.
He also condemned the recent 43-day US government shutdown, which followed a funding wrangle, as “borderline criminal”, citing its impact on consumer confidence and holiday bookings. He urged Congress to exempt air traffic controllers and TSA agents from future shutdowns.
Freeman acknowledged some positive steps from the Trump administration, including $13 billion for air traffic control modernisation and reduced visa waiting times, but reiterated inbound travel was declining.
