Global airline industry losses are set to narrow to $11.6 billion in 2022 after an estimated $51.8 billion in 2021. However, this year’s losses have been revised upwards since April, when they were forecast to be $47.7 billion.
Iata has also revised its 2020 loss estimates up to $137.7 billion from $126.4 billion. Adding these up, total industry losses in 2020-2022 are expected to reach $201 billion.
The association estimates total passenger numbers will reach 2.3 billion this year. This will grow to 3.4 billion in 2022, similar to 2014 levels but significantly below the 4.5 billion of 2019.
Iata said European carriers would cut losses from $20.9 billion in 2021 to $9.2 billion in 2022.
The latest figures were released as Iata holds its annual general meeting in Boston.
Willie Walsh, Iata’s director general, said airlines had dramatically reduced costs and adapted their business to whatever opportunities were available, which would see global industry losses reduce to $12 billion in 2022.
“We are well past the deepest point of the crisis. While serious issues remain, the path to recovery is coming into view. Aviation is demonstrating its resilience yet again,” he said.
However, he warned: “Financial support was a lifeline for many airlines during the crisis. Much of that - approximately $110 billion - is in the form of support that needs to be paid back. Combined with commercial borrowing the industry is now highly leveraged.
“We don’t want handouts, but wage support measures to retain critical skills may be necessary for some airlines until governments enable international travel at scale. And regulatory alleviations - like continued slot wavers while international traffic recovers - will be needed well into 2022.”
The industry must also face rising fuel prices. Iata said the price of jet kerosene “was the only respite for airlines in 2020”. It fell to $46.6 a barrel last year from $77 in 2019. Kerosene prices increased to an average of $74.5 in 2021 and are expected to rise further to $77.8 in 2022.
