On one side, you have growing affluence, the lifting of visa restrictions and a boom in the number of airlines and airports enabling people to travel for the first time; on the other, countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma and Laos are emerging as destinations with global appeal.
There is a wealth of statistics about tourism to and from Asia Pacific and while they may not agree exact figures, the trends are glaringly apparent. According to Euromonitor, 2014 GDP growth in the region, at 5.7%, was far ahead of the global average of 3.4%, an indication of growing personal affluence. The value of the region’s hotel bookings rose 7% to more than $140 billion, the highest globally. This means Asia Pacific has now overtaken western Europe as the world’s largest hotel market.
It goes without saying that the region will also be the global hotspot for outbound tourism in the years to come, with China and India in particular taking advantage of travel opportunities like never before. Experts and statisticians may quibble over the figures, but they are unanimous in their view, summed up by Peter Kerkar, Cox & Kings chief executive, who says simply: “China is the real story.” Kerkar estimates that China sent 100 million tourists abroad for the first time in 2014, a 20% increase in a year. This was no doubt helped by an $80 billion investment in infrastructure, with China planning to operate 240 airports by 2020.
Kerkar estimates that 85 million of these 100 million visits were within Asia, but that Europe received 3.5 million, a proportion that will only grow in the coming years.
Influence of aviation
Aviation has undoubtedly played a part in the region’s burgeoning tourism industry, particularly in outbound travel. It’s no coincidence that the low-cost long-haul boom began in Asia, led by Malaysia’s Air Asia X. Singapore’s Scoot, and most recently the Philippines’ Cebu Pacific, all of which operate wide-body fleets with high-density seating, followed this. Kerkar, however, does not feel aviation capacity is a current issue or that it will limit future growth. “I think there is enough capacity worldwide,” he says.
China’s growing airline industry, specifically its burgeoning low-cost carriers, is a good indication of where its citizens will be travelling.
Research company Canadean puts the number of budget airline seats available to Chinese travellers last year at 39.5 million but estimates that this will rise to 78.5 million by 2019.
According to Capa – Centre for Aviation, six of China’s main airlines will serve Australia from next year, from as far west as Chengdu.
The country is China’s most popular leisure market, followed by Russia and Canada. The UK languishes in ninth place, according to OAG figures, with the absence of Schengen visa availability and slots at Heathrow being factors – so much so that Chinese visitor numbers to the UK actually fell by 7.6% in 2014 to fewer than 200,000. The UK has attempted to address this, with David Cameron announcing last week a two-year multiple-entry visa. Chinese visitors are normally issued with a six-month tourist visa, costing £85. For the same price, the new scheme will issue a two-year tourist visa, enabling the holder to leave and return to the UK without fresh paperwork. However tourism chiefs have warned that the move does not go far enough, and Nick Varney, the chief executive of Merlin, which operates Legoland, Alton Towers and Madame Tussauds warned last week that although the change was welcome, it was not enough to tip the balance in the UK's favour, with the visa process still remaining more onerous for the UK than other countries.
Accommodation is another issue. Group tours are especially popular with the Chinese, who spend a smaller proportion on accommodation than other countries’ visitors. “The big trend is dorm-style hotels – we expect that to be the next major trend in Europe,” says Kerkar.
The Chinese prefer to go shopping instead - Euromonitor estimates that only 10% of their in-destination spend goes on accommodation, less than half the global average.
One of the big stories in Asia Pacific is cruising, which is particularly popular with the Chinese because of the relaxation of gambling restrictions when at sea.
Kerkar estimates that cruising in the region grew by 79% in the years 2012-2014, with half the total 1.4 million coming from China.
Carnival’s prediction is that it will take only 10 years for China’s cruise market to equal that of the US, where 10 million cruise each year – and this from a market that saw just 87,000 passengers in 2011.
Inbound growth patterns
Unsurprisingly, the inbound market to Asia Pacific is not seeing anything like the growth rates going in the other direction, with single-digit growth throughout, according to Kerkar.
“We don’t see major change,” he admits, citing the mature economies and established holiday patterns in the supplying markets. He adds that inbound growth in Asia is being hampered because countries such as Sri Lanka still have to develop more tourism infrastructure.
The top destinations of Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore lag far behind those in areas such as Europe. For example, Malaysia, Asia’s biggest market outside China, receives around 27 million visitors, and France, the world’s biggest tourist destination, 83 million.
Wendy Wu Tours has now branched out into south-east Asia as a whole in the UK market, having sold it in Australia for some time. Vietnam is its biggest seller in the region, followed by Cambodia. “Vietnam is a bigger country and the visitor experience is very favourable, so word-of-mouth recommendation is growing,” says Wu.
Looking ahead to 2020, her tip for the boom market is again, inevitably, China. “If – and it’s a big if – China makes it easier, then the market will be a lot bigger,” she says.
Wu cites visa difficulties and issues such as the closure of Tiananmen Square for government events as hurdles that must be overcome.
“If that doesn’t change, Vietnam will catch up and be on a par,” she predicts.
Economists forecast that India – another Wendy Wu destination – is set to overtake China in terms of GDP growth in 2016.
While this has positive implications for outbound travel, Wu warns that inbound travel may face issues as a result. “GDP growth can be a problem for visitors because it pushes up prices. China is the same – it’s not just accommodation, but food, tours, guides. Domestic demand has made prices surge.”
This contrasts with Vietnam, she says. “Vietnam has suffered an economic downturn and that has helped keep prices low. So far, so good.”
