The association has significantly increased its forecast for the projected hit from Covid-19, up from $29.3 billion revenue just a fortnight ago.
Iata projects the loss in global revenue from coronavirus in 2020 could now range from $63 billion to $113 billion, now the virus has spread to more than 80 countries around the world and “severely impacted” forward bookings on routes beyond China where the virus is believed to have originated.
“The turn of events as a result of Covid-19 is almost without precedent,” said Iata director general and chief executive Alexandre de Juniac.
“In a little over two months, the industry’s prospects in much of the world have taken a dramatic turn for the worse.
“It is unclear how the virus will develop, but whether we see the impact contained to a few markets and a $63 billion revenue loss, or a broader impact leading to a $113 billion loss of revenue – this is a crisis."
De Juniac said with airlines cutting capacity and taking emergency measures to reduce costs, it was vital governments took note of the situation.
“Airlines are doing their best to stay afloat as they perform the vital task of linking the world’s economies,” he said.
“As governments look to stimulus measures, the airline industry will need consideration for relief on taxes, charges and slot allocation – these are extraordinary times.”
According to Iata, even “limited spread” of the virus – the lowest end of its estimates – would result in a loss of worldwide passenger revenue of $63 billion (11%).
Passenger numbers, meanwhile, would likely drop off 24% in Italy and 10% in both France and Germany, and 7% across the rest of the continent.
In Iata’s worst-case scenario, “extensive spread” of Covid-19, the outcome is a 19% loss of global passenger revenue, which equates to $113 billion.
“Financially, that would be on a scale equivalent to what the industry experienced in the global financial crisis,” said Iata.
The revenue impact in Europe of Iata’s extensive spread scenario would be $43.9 billion and a 33% decline in passenger numbers.
“Financial markets have reacted strongly,” said Iata. “Airline share prices have fallen nearly 25% since the outbreak began, some 21 percentage points greater than the decline that occurred at a similar point during the Sars crisis of 2003.
“To a large extent, this fall already prices in a shock to industry revenues much greater than our previous analysis.”
