We’re halfway through 2025 – a year many in the Irish travel trade might just be happy to end level with 2024 amid choppy market conditions and transatlantic turmoil.
Overpricing and poor weather at the start of the year was followed by US president Donald Trump’s tariff threats, creating wariness among consumers, agents tell TTG.
The Irish Travel Agents Association (ITAA) boasts nearly 100 members with 140 shops and offers a good snapshot of the market. “It’s been a very unusual year,” says Tom Randles, managing director of Barter’s Travelnet in Cork, who has been ITAA president since April.
“It started off slowly with severe snow before catching up. Then in March, Trump and his tariffs created a lot of uncertainty.”
More exposed
He and others speaking to TTG explain how Ireland is more sensitive to what happens in the US than Great Britain because of the many US firms located in Ireland. “That held people back because we are very exposed in pharma and IT,” Randles continues. “At the tail end of May, it picked up, so it’s going to be a later booking season.”
Randles estimates bookings are somewhere between “minus five to plus two per cent” compared with 2024. “The last two years, we very much saw the Covid bounce. Now the feeling is that 2025 is just going to be on a par with last year.
“I reckon we won’t be far off – the noise around Trump’s tariffs is easing, the economy is strong and employment is stable. The biggest change is the cost of living, plus the housing crisis is having an impact.”
Following spring licensing renewals, the Irish Aviation Authority estimates agency turnover for the 12 months from May at €529.4 million compared with €524.3 million a year earlier. Operator expectations are more optimistic, projecting €3.9 billion compared with €3 billion.
Randles agrees, as does Dominic Burke, managing director of Travel Centres Ireland, whose consortium has 73 agents. He’s another to highlight the disruptive weather and “much higher than expected” prices in January and February.
“March fell off a cliff,” he says. “It started to recover after Easter, but it’s been plodding along ever since. We’re all speculating why. What’s in the minds of consumers – I imagine – is what’s going on across the Atlantic.”
Uncertain times
Burke stresses Ireland’s tech and pharma companies account for “a significant part of the well-paid workforce”. “When there is uncertainty, consumers keep their powder dry,” he says. He also blames “price gouging” on essentials like food. “For a lot of people on tighter budgets, it’s an issue.”
Another concern is the rise of OTAs like Loveholidays and On the Beach in the budget and family markets. “They are the elephant in the room,” Burke warns.
Randles adds: “The OTAs are attracting market share, but Tui is fighting hard to offer competitive alternatives to the trade. OTAs make it so easy for customers and price very aggressively. At times, it can be very hard to compete, but it reminds agents they can’t rely on the family market, they have to diversify.”
OTAs and worries about job security are affecting the family market for traditional agents. “Customers are sitting on the fence,” says Cathy Burke, managing director of Travel Counsellors Ireland, which has 82 agents in the republic. “Families with young children is one area where we are little bit down.”
She shares Dominic Burke’s concerns. “Since 1 March, everyone agrees there is no consistency, but the economy is in a really good place.”
However, she also points to the reliance on big US firms. “There are a lot of small industries that feed into those companies, so when there’s an announcement about tariffs, it makes people a little nervous. It’s the underlying fear of ‘what if?’.”
There’s still time for things to bounce back, though. Click&Go Holidays managing director Paul Hackett, a former ITAA president, is optimistic: “I think we’re looking at a strong lates market,” he says, adding: “We’re hopefully looking at year-on-year growth, but single digit, not double.”
Like others, Hackett flags inconsistent trading. “Consumer confidence is at its lowest for quite some time yet interest rates and inflation are down and unemployment is falling. I think it’s about what might happen. It’s not like consumers don’t have the money, they do.”
Seeing sense
He says some airlines had corrected pricing that was too high. “We’ve seen common sense return,” he adds, highlighting signs of “subtle discounting” by accommodation providers. “At the start of the year, there was an idea they could charge the earth.”
Travel Counsellors’ Burke agrees. “In January, in particular, airlines and cruise companies came in with prices that were too high. Now we have a lot of airline sales for summer departures, that’s unusual, but now it’s impossible to find suitable accommodation.”
Views on how travel to the US has been affected are mixed. Tom Britton, managing director of Marble City Travel in Kilkenny – winners of Ireland’s Top Agency in this year’s TTG Top 50 awards – disputes claims of a dip or lack of desire because of president Trump.
“Airlines are flagging a softness, but this appears to be rebounding now,” he insists. “In many cases, those who flag a reason for not travelling to the US may not have been going anyway.” Britton, who has been twice this year, adds: “It is as friendly and positive as ever.”
Click&Go also plays down the impact. “Trump had a real impact in March, but in my head it’s an echo chamber,” Hackett says. “I went through Miami and it was absolutely normal, but media coverage has you believing your phone is going to be checked.
“Consumers going to Orlando, New York or Las Vegas are not planning to bump into Trump. I think negativity has reached fever pitch and died down.”
However, Travel Centres’ Burke takes a different view on growing fears about social media scrutiny at the border. “It’s nobody’s business what I post online, and if they saw what I was posting about Trump, I’d end up in Guantanamo Bay,” he remarks. “So the States is not on the agenda for the foreseeable future. I suspect most Irish people will be very anti-Trump.”
He adds traditional Irish-market favourites like Lanzarote, Tenerife, Majorca and the Algarve are selling well, with agents’ dynamic packaging reflecting this.
There’s still a way to go, and hopefully the feel-good factor will return, precipitating those anticipated strong late sales. Meanwhile, Cathy Burke perhaps sums up the mood best: “It’s a funny season, but we’re not cracking up laughing.”
