Clyde & Co partner Richard Mumford said airlines were struggling to secure newer, cleaner aircraft with which to expand. “The problem is there are not enough of them,” he told the Abta Aviation Forum in London on Thursday (3 April).
This, he said, also meant older, less fuel-efficient aircraft were being kept in service longer, and that with high demand and low leasing costs, airlines were currently very profitable.
He told delegates both Boeing and Airbus were “already behind with orders” before the pandemic. “They were over-selling,” he said, adding some believed the pandemic had been an opportunity for both companies “to put their houses in order” that they did not take.
“Now there are supply chain issues – the reality is they have too many orders, they can’t fulfil them.” He added one client, which placed an order in 2019, had now been given a 2030 delivery date.
Another issue, he said, was the number of aircraft that airlines had converted into freighters during the pandemic. “Now, if you could, you would convert them back," he mused.
All this happened as new generation engines began to exhibit technical issues. These affected some Boeing 787s and Airbus short-haul aircraft, with carriers having to ground large parts of their fleets.
Mumford said reliability had “deteriorated because of the strive for sustainability”, which meant technology was being pushed to the limit.
He added the problem was exacerbated by manufacturers bringing much of the maintenance in-house, meaning fewer contractors to remedy the issue. “They forced airlines to use their shops and plants.” As a consequence, turnaround repair times often ran to more than a year.
Issues with the Boeing Max being grounded following two fatal accidents and a door plug blowing out mid-flight did not help, Mumford continued.
‘Old, dirty aircraft’
Iata estimates a backlog of 17,000 new aircraft deliveries, equal to half the world’s current fleet and one that will take around 14 years to clear.
"The problem is everyone is flying around in old, dirty aircraft," Mumford said. "It would be great to see manufacturers sorting out production. It’s reducing the number of people that can fly because of a lack of seats. Charters are expensive and hard to come by.”
In addition, there was a lack of spare parts because old aircraft were not being scrapped, he said, adding it was a “great time” to be an aircraft leasing company.
One suggested remedy was retrieving aircraft stored during Covid. However, Mumford said some carriers were reluctant to bring less fuel-efficient types back into service because of sustainability credentials.
