The destination has been off-limits to UK travellers for much of the key summer season after it was placed on the red list in May.
However, the Turkish embassy said in a statement provided to Sky the data on Turkey’s epidemic supported a favourable reclassification under the UK’s traffic light regime.
The latest three-weekly update to the system is due this week, with any changes likely to come into effect at the weekend or early next week.
"The scientific data on Covid-19 support our expectation that Turkey will be removed from the red list at the upcoming review," said the embassy.
Citing figures from the Our World in Data website, the embassy suggested Turkey’s infection rate – based on a seven-day rolling average – was now below that of the UK.
It said the country’s genomic sequencing capabilities had improved, along with its vaccination programme, and stressed several countries were now permitting quarantine-free travel to and from Turkey for those who are fully vaccinated through the EU’s acceptance of Covid status certificates issued in Turkey.
"We expect the UK to take into account all these developments and remove Turkey from the red list this week," the embassy added.
According to NHS Test and Trace figures reported by Sky, 1.7% of people arriving into the UK from Turkey over the most recent three-week period for which there is data available tested positive for Covid-19, broadly comparable with Spain.
