Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus and the Mediterranean in general have become used to seeing millions of Russians – and Ukrainians – each summer. This year, the beaches of Antalya and the boutiques of Marbella seem certain to be bereft of Russians, with the number of flights severely limited by airspace restrictions.

Even if these restrictions are lifting, the collapse of the rouble may prove too big an obstacle for the average Russian. In March 2021, a euro could be bought for 88 roubles. Twelve months later, it would take 134 roubles – a 52% increase.

The rouble’s fall was nowhere near as calamitous against the Turkish lira, closer to 10%, but against the US dollar, which is widely used in the Caribbean, it was down 64% in mid-March – a level only palatable to globetrotting oligarchs, who face the toughest travel restrictions of all.

Turkey is by far the most important tourist destination for Russians, with seven million visiting in 2019. Mabrian Travel Intelligence estimates that pre-conflict, 1.99 million seats from Russia to Turkey were scheduled between late February and late August, not including those from foreign carriers.

Other destinations will also be affected, with Mabrian estimating the UAE would normally see 782,000 seats in this period, Greece 304,000, Egypt 283,000 and Cyprus 235,000.

Thomas Cook, now re-established as an OTA, believes the knock-on effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will be felt later in the summer in the UK market: “Turkey is particularly affected, but often the hotels popular with our clients are not popular with Russians,” said a Cook spokesperson. “I think in the next few weeks we’ll see hoteliers wanting to offer other properties, particularly in Turkey and Egypt.”

The shape of the UK market would exacerbate the situation, they said. “What we are seeing is a disrupted traditional buying period. It feels like lates will be the peak. I think there will be some enticing summer deals for Turkey and Egypt, particularly towards the end of the summer. You might see something similar in the higher end resorts – Ibiza and Mykonos, for example.”

Tourist boards are anxiously considering steps to offset the anticipated shortfall. In 2019, just over 1.3 million Russians visited Spain, a relatively small figure compared with the more than 17 million Britons, but Russia’s absence means Spanish tourist board Turespana must make up the shortfall.

Spain cancelled its stand at Moscow’s MITT tourism show in March, plus all promotional activity, citing solidarity with Ukraine. It said it was “working on finding alternatives to a possible absence of Russian tourists this high season in our destinations most exposed to this market”.

A country that will take a bigger hit proportionately is Cyprus. In 2019, Cyprus had 1.33 million UK tourist arrivals and 781,856 from Russia. About another 200,000 were expected from Ukraine.

Pantelis Ioannides, Cyprus’s deputy Ministry of Tourism spokesperson, said: “We plan to fill the gap from markets like the UK, Germany, Sweden, Israel, Austria, Switzerland, France, Italy, Poland and Hungary, from which we will have 20-40 flights per week.”

Greece and Cyprus specialist Sunvil is watching the situation closely. Rachel Jelley, sales and marketing manager, predicted more of an impact on the latter. “For Cyprus, there are much closer ties with, and reliance on, the Russian outbound tourism industry – mainly all-inclusive hotels. We may see offers and reduced rates here, but demand for travel from other source markets is likely to fill any available beds."

Greece will see little impact, she predicted. “The Russian share of the Greek tourism market was 8% of the total arrivals from the UK and Greece in 2019. It is not a market reliant on Russia, and even less so after a strong season in 2021, both from domestic travellers and those from other European destinations.”

She forecast: “Cancellations from Russian and Ukrainian travellers will be easily resold due to current high levels of demand from other source markets.”

Advantage leisure director Kelly Cookes said there was no significant evidence yet of hoteliers keen to offload rooms but added there was “definitely” a change in UK demand for certain destinations due to the conflict. “Turkey has decreased, while Spain has gone up, so if this trend continues, there may be destinations that were more reliant on the Russian market that look to reduce prices to entice UK customers,” she predicted.

The horrors in Ukraine, and the international condemnation of Russia, mean that even if the conflict ends before summer, the effect on destinations reliant on both country’s tourists will be felt far longer. It would be an unwise hotelier who did not start to think about new sources of visitors for the next few years.