Sometimes, even the most experienced agents find themselves at a loss. “I can't think of a time when there have been so many individual elements that are worrying people about their holidays – and I’ve been in travel for 30 years,” Deben Travel founder Lee Hunt tells TTG, while Swords Travel founder Mark Swords describes the situation as a “perfect storm of issues”.

Hunt and Swords are among a group of travel trade stalwarts to whom TTG spoke this week to get a sense of how agents are faring amid the war in the Middle East, potential fuel shortages, dwindling spend, ongoing cost of living concerns and flagging consumer confidence.

There's the spectre too of what impact the EU's new biometric border checks will have on the summer getaway, with hysterical national media coverage of what have so far been just a couple of isolated incidents – both at the same Italian airport – contributing to a uniquely challenging operational landscape for agents.

Sales slowdown

All four of the agents TTG spoke to said they had experienced sales and bookings go down in at least some areas – particularly the families segment – compounded by a lacklustre Easter period.

Andrew Earle, founder of Andrew Earles Holidays, said the business had “not really seen the family market blossom this year”. “July and August are pretty empty compared with where I think the tour operators would like them to be,” he said, adding the agency's long-haul business had been particularly hard hit.

“People are very sensitive," he continued. "This has had an impact across all of the businesses, but more so in our Hull branch, which has not been particularly busy for the last four weeks.

"It has been better since last Wednesday – we're operating on target levels again – but in the five weeks previous to that, we've been about 25% down on sales, which is actually better than I thought it was going to be.

“But at the same time, there's an awful lot of people who are saying that until all this all settles down, they’re not doing [booking] anything. We've also had a hit with lost commissions off cancelled bookings.”

Shona Thorne, managing director of Thorne Travel, agreed trading had “certainly been challenging”. “It's definitely a mixed bag, especially for the families market at this time, where we would expect to see a lot more,” she said. “I don't think there'll be many [agents] who are up now [on bookings].

“March was better than April for us. We had two-and-a-half weeks that the kids were off school for Easter and people would normally have gone away last minute – but they didn't.”

Hunt added: “For the months of March and April, business is down from a sales perspective. I suppose we’ve been lucky really that – bar the dark years of Covid – the business has always grown.”

"Big cancellations”, Hunt said, had been particlarly tough to take, as did Swords. “Now we're seeing the loss side of things [from the Middle East conflict],” he said. “Because we pay hotels and we have to refund clients in full, we're losing out on the return exchange rates coming back.

“The other day, we had a booking we had to refund, but with the exchange rate with the dollar being higher than when we purchased, it means we've lost £500 on that booking straight away.

“And then on top of that, you're going to lose all your credit card charges. We've probably got 10 to 15 bookings where we're sat in deficits. So there's a loss there already from the month of March.”

Swords also highlighted the additional pressures of running a small business at this time. “I think the biggest impact we're seeing at the moment is that we're obviously still having to pay massive outgoings: in effect, our business rates have actually gone up. So we went from £800 a month to £1,250 a month, which is another £500 or so a month.”

Home sweet home?

So what is going well? Beyond highlighting the popularity of the likes of Mexico and Australia at the present time, all four business owners reported a boost in ex-UK cruise sales, with clients opting to start their holidays closer to home.

“Cruises are working well, especially local departures – Southampton, Rosyth, Dundee, they're making customers feel good,” said Thorne. “Cruise has been one of our biggest anchors.” Earle added: “Royal Caribbean's ex-UK cruises, we've definitely done more with them. I think the market rate is pretty good.”

Hunt said his business was also “doing a lot of ex-UK cruises”, adding that while Deben Travel doesn’t sell UK holidays, he foresaw another “bumper year for the staycation". Ex-UK round-trip cruises come with added appeal this year – guests who depart from UK shores and arrive back into the UK won't have to deal with the EU's new biometric border rules.

(Credit: iStock / Wayleebird)

Thorne, however, is looking to make to most of this year’s appetite for domestic travel. “Customers would rather stay in the UK, so much so that our next marketing push is more luxury lodges domestically,” she revealed.

“It's not your high revenue sale, but it's something that makes a customer feel more comfortable and still brings in income. A customer then sees how much service they're getting, which leads them on to look at something [abroad] with you for next year.”

The reassurance piece

The agents agreed that while a lot of customers are still holding fire on bookings, with a little reassurance and encouragement there is still confidence out there. “There is some consumer confidence, but it's just having patience, and I think maybe encouraging people over the line a bit more,” said Swords.

Thorne Travel is proactively reassuring customers via two-page social media posts and radio slots that outline the impacts of the major issues currently facing travellers, and offering reassurance. “Don’t be put off by headlines – we’re monitoring everything closely and managing situations as they arise,” the post concludes.

The quarter agreed also that some of the issues gaining momentum in the mainstream media aren’t always consistent and may depend on the destination being visited.

(Credit: iStock / frantic00)

Swords reported finding reasonably priced return British Airways flights to Thessaloniki for June, although Earle this week had to inform a rugby club who are taking 40 players out to Australia next February that their airfares have already increased by about £250 per person.

Swords reported “absolute carnage” at Geneva airport last week owing to the new EU Entry-Exit System, but highlighted that he’d seen colleagues at other airports having no issues at all.

“I think missing flights is the worry that people have got, but we've not had any evidence of that happening,” said Earle. “So, we're just trying to play it down a little bit and say, ‘oh, there's odd examples’. It's another reason for people to make an informed choice when they've got a choice of flights.”

Longer-term outlook

The agents, though, are united in their belief the market will improve as the year progresses, with all four believing experience of previous challenging trading environments have ensured they are resilient and well set up to capitalise on any opportunities that arise.

"We’ve got more October bookings as I think there’s a hope that things will have settled down by then – and people will look at 2027 as well,” said Thorne, adding it could yet come sooner. “We've just adapted our marketing to suit that, because there's no point in carrying on putting something out to try and tempt somebody if they don't feel confident.”

Hunt agreed he was optimistic about September onwards. “Our predominant bookings are couples so September is a massive month for us in terms of money coming into the business due to departures,” he said. “I am hopeful, but at the same time, we really do need some of these world issues to resolve. And you know, it's not looking like they're going to happen that quickly.

“To an extent, people will always want their holidays and we'll be there to support them and guide them through all these rules and try to reassure them, but with all the negativity out there, it could be difficult – who knows, maybe we're going to see a bumper winter.”

Earle added to the point Hunt made about service. “The good news is [events like this] seem to throw people back in front of travel professionals.

“I'm really hoping we can benefit from the fact that people think we're worthy of an investment, or because everybody seems to assume that we're more expensive – that’s the old chicken and egg and we’ll see how it manifests.”

Swords predicted a trend for late Europe sales. “I think places like Greece, Spain and Croatia will do really well, even Turkey.”

Speaking on the preparedness point, Swords added: “If you’re consistent every single day, on what you do, with your marketing, with your team, and just keep everybody up, you'll come out the other side.”