The world has been here before. Conflict reshaping the skies overnight – but rarely quite like this. Since US and Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February, the Middle East has gone from being the engine room of global aviation to a no-fly zone of staggering proportions.
More than 46,000 flights in and out of the region were cancelled in less than two weeks, a region which would ordinarily see nearly 300,000 people pass through one of its airports with approximately 70% transiting to a connecting flight.
The reverberations of what we are seeing in the Middle East are far broader impacts for all of us, even holidaymakers who have never set foot anywhere near the Gulf.
The problem is geography. For decades, the Middle East has sat at the crossroads of the world's busiest long-haul routes. The critical bridge between Europe and Asia. Dubai International, Hamad in Doha, and Zayed in Abu Dhabi serve as megahubs. When that airspace slams shut, there is no neat detour. Flights must arc around entire regions, burning more fuel, eating into crew hours, and scrambling carefully planned aircraft rotations.
And that cost will land squarely on passengers. Every small rise in jet fuel per gallon adds millions to some of the airline’s annual fuel bill alone. Multiply that across the entire global industry and you begin to understand why fuel surcharges are coming, if they aren't already on your booking page.
The knock-on effects
The knock-on effects stretch beyond fares. Aircraft are displaced, crews are stranded in hotels awaiting clearance, and schedules are in chaos. Capacity on key routes like London to Bangkok, Amsterdam to Singapore, Paris to Sydney is shrinking, and where supply falls, prices rise further. Meanwhile, travellers who might have chosen Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Qatar as destinations are pivoting elsewhere.
One travel analyst has called this the most chaotic event for global aviation since 9/11 it could also be compared to the Ash Cloud crisis in April 2010. This is not a niche regional disruption; it is a structural shock to a global industry that was only just finding its post-pandemic footing. However, it’s in moments like these, the true value of the travel industry reveals itself.
Travel agents and industry partners have always been the human safety net behind every booking, and right now, that matters more than ever as we work collectively to support the efforts to ensuring every stranded passenger is back home safely.
But whilst we remain cognisant of the complexity of the situation in the Middle East. We need to take stock and ask questions of government, the industry and ourselves, as to what’s the playbook for when chaos looms next time.
'This crisis demands accountability'
Our members are working around the clock for their customers, yet this crisis demands more than dedication. It demands accountability. Governments must stop treating our industry as an afterthought in geopolitical calculations. We must invest in genuine contingency frameworks, not just crisis PR. And we must ask ourselves, honestly, whether the playbook we reach for in moments like these is fit for purpose, or whether we are simply improvising again.
The skies will reopen. The question is whether, this time, we are brave enough to use the chaos to build something better. Let’s not just weather this storm, let's use it. Build the frameworks, demand the policies, and forge the resilience that means next time, we don't just survive the chaos. We lead through it.
