The UK’s hub airport said in a report to investors that traffic would reach 61.4 million passengers this year, which is at the “upper end” of its previous forecast and represents around 75% of 2019’s passenger numbers of 80.9 million. This compares to traffic of just 22.1 million travellers in 2020 and 19.4 million in 2021.
Heathrow is currently predicting that passenger traffic in 2023 will rise by 9.5% year-on-year to 67.2 million, which would still be 17% lower than pre-Covid figures.
“Whilst the majority of Covid restrictions have been removed we now face further uncertainty from an economics perspective with key markets already in recession or predicted to be in 2023; the fast-paced levels of growth seen in 2022 are expected to slow considerably,” said the airport in its report.
Heathrow also points out that flight prices are expected to “remain high” in 2023, which will “likely dampen” growth as the cost of living crisis continues.
There may also be a fall in the amount of pent-up demand from the visiting friends and relatives (VFR) market, which has “heavily driven” the strong rebound seen this year as Covid rules were lifted and people could travel again. Heathrow said this surge in VFR traffic is “likely to be a short-term change” rather than a sustained longer-term trend.
“We therefore expect a higher weighting of business and leisure markets to return going forwards, which have had slower rates of recovery so far. It is expected that east Asia gradually eases restrictions throughout 2023 but the impact of the Ukraine-Russian war is ongoing,” added the report.
Heathrow said it expected to make adjusted ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) of £1.7 billion in 2022, which was an increase of £308 million on its previous forecast in June. This measure of profit is currently forecast to rise by 4% in 2023 to £1.75 billion.
The airport again hit out at the CAA’s plans to reduce its passenger charges over the next five years, which were announced in June. Although airlines claim these charges would still be too high and would effectively "punish" passengers for not flying during the Covid crisis.
“Our analysis shows that the CAA’s proposals, as currently set out, are not deliverable or financeable due to errors in the CAA’s forecasts of key regulatory building blocks,” said the report. “If these errors are not rectified, it will restrict investment in the UK’s hub airport when the country’s economic recovery needs it most.”
The CAA is expected to make a final decision on how much Heathrow can charge in early 2023.
