The Climate Change Committee (CCC), which advises parliament on reducing emissions, has included international aviation and shipping for the first time in its latest report, setting out recommendations on how the UK can achieve net zero.
Laying out its strategy on Wednesday (26 February) for the period from 2038 to 2042, the CCC warned growth in aviation demand should be managed “through ensuring that the cost of decarbonising aviation is reflected in the price of flying”.
It warns: “Aviation demand can only grow if technology roll-out progresses and begins to abate and offset aviation emissions, with demand management playing an important role in reducing emissions in the 2020s and 2030s while availability of SAF and engineered removals is limited.”
It said a consumer panel showed support for this approach, with most seeing “flying as a choice rather than a necessity, particularly as many UK citizens do not fly often or at all”.
The report added: “There was generally a preference to moderate the flying of those who fly frequently, business flights, and private jet use.”
Most also felt ticket price increases because of policy were acceptable but emphasised the importance of protecting the ability of families to fly on holiday once per year, including low-income families.
Research also found a preference to target the most polluting flights and a feeling “that responsibility for reducing emissions should sit with the airline industry”.
There was strong disapproval of taxpayer-funded carbon removal “as they felt that those who do not fly should not face additional costs associated with removals”.
Most respondents strongly supported a frequent flier levy, or an emissions or distance-based tax.
The CCC says aviation accounted for 8% of UK emissions in 2023. Although the CCC’s plan predicts a fall of 17% by 2040, reductions in other sectors – such as the use of electric cars – mean flying will become the UK’s highest greenhouse gas-emitting sector, accounting for 27% of total.
The CCC’s projection is for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) to provide 17% of aviation demand by 2040 and for 5% of all the UK’s emissions reduction to be due to aviation in the same timescale.
The report says: “We assume that the aviation sector bears the costs of meeting net zero for flying and makes use of both SAF and engineered removals.”
It predicts SAF will meet 6% of total fuel demand in 2030, 17% in 2040, and 38% by 2050, lower than predictions, due to “expected supply constraints in the late 2020s and 2030s”.
It adds aviation emissions “have now almost rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, with 2023 emissions reaching 90% of 2019”.
The report says shipping accounts for 3% of UK emissions but can “almost completely decarbonise” by 2050 via low emission synthetic fuels and electric shore power.
