While a jet fuel shortage at Glasgow and Edinburgh airports at the start of June turned out to be false alarm, the fallout from the Middle East crisis means a continuing threat if not of supply difficulties then of spiralling prices.
The Scottish airports’ predicament, which meant some flights had to refuel at Prestwick and Manchester, was due to nothing more than a shortage of tanker drivers as, unlike many UK airports, Glasgow and Edinburgh rely on deliveries by road, not pipeline.
Casting this one-off incident aside, the apocalyptic warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in April that Europe had "maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left" has not materialised.
Moreover, the price of a barrel of jet fuel is falling. Iata’s Jet Fuel Price Monitor shows the average price in Europe at the end of May was $146, down from the $203 in mid-April.
The bad news is the price is still 60% more than it was at the same time last year. For the past two years, the market has been more used to $80-90 a barrel.
Are airlines going to run out of fuel this summer?
The warnings keep coming: the IEA, International Monetary Fund, World Bank and World Trade Organization together said on 29 May that global oil supplies “are being drawn down at a record pace” due to the stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
They stressed: “If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions and broader economic resilience.”
Research firm Teneo estimates the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in around 50% of Gulf states’ refining capacity being lost. The industry will look ahead with some trepidation if Trump and Iran do not reach agreement.
So should we be panicking and thinking consumers won’t travel?
'Structural cliff' on the horizon
Currently, all major UK airlines claim there are no supply issues, although some are managing this by consolidating frequencies. Concern was such the government last month issued a statement denying fuel shortages.
However, it added around 1,200 flights have been cancelled that were due to depart between 3 May and 14 June but pointed out “only 0.53% of the UK’s planned flights for May” were cancelled.
Major carriers seem confident about their ability to fly this summer. Benjamin Smith, Chief Executive pf Air France-KLM, said: "Air France, KLM and Transavia will transport all their customers this summer.
"We are continuously monitoring fuel availability at the destinations we serve and, as highlighted by the French and Dutch governments in recent weeks, all indicators are positive for the July and August peak travel season.”
In the UK, a look at recent trading statements from the big airlines and operators should reassure anxious agents and consumers that summer 2026 will likely be without fuel supply issues or price hikes once bookings are made, with airlines having secured supplies in advance at agreed prices.
Iata’s current average oil price in Europe, expressed in dollars per tonne, is $1,152. EasyJet’s latest trading update reveals the airline is 72% hedged for the summer season at $726 per tonne.
Similarly, Jet2 has 87% of its summer 2026 needs catered for at $707 a tonne, which it says is “giving us a high degree of cost certainty”.
European Business Magazine praised Jet2’s “genuinely strong” trading update issued in April, but warned: “The structural cliff edge sits 12 months out” if the Iran situation is not resolved.
Meanwhile, the magazine’s analyst said Jet2’s £2 billion net cash means it can “navigate short-term volatility” and avoid surcharging.
Tui is also in a good position; as of early May, it was 83% hedged for summer 2026.
So what about next year?
All this means that even if fuel rates continue to spiral, summer pricing looks assured and slapping a fuel surcharge on summer holidays is very unlikely.
Abta is confident this is so. It said: “For flight-only bookings, it is not standard practice in the travel industry for airlines to ask for extra money once a ticket has been issued, and we’re not aware of this happening in relation to flights.
“Whether an airline could do so would depend on its individual terms and conditions and some airlines have recently ruled this out altogether.”
Airlines are loathe to surcharge, but many have hiked fares to new customers. Virgin Atlantic has been transparent about this, adding £50 to £360 to new bookings in April, depending on class of travel. This is understandable given the airline has just announced annual losses of £127 million in 2025.
On package holidays, operators can add up to 8% without offering the right to cancel, but are generally keen to avoid the extra administration and loss of goodwill surcharging incurs.
None of this looks likely this summer, but what’s to come? Looking ahead, easyJet is 53% hedged for winter 2026/27 at $719 and 29% for next summer at $745. Tui is 62% hedged for next winter and 36% for summer 2027, although it has not detailed rates.
Hopefully, airlines will be in a position to undertaken further prudent fuel purchasing, but something to factor in is how late summer 2026 bookings are this year. If sales fall short of expectations, that may create difficulties for anyone trying to fund the hedging of next year’s costs.
The signs are that it’s a nervous market – and there will be some worried faces among those trying to plan for next year and beyond.
