The event, held in London on Wednesday morning (22 April), brought together industry heads to dissect the current state of the travel industry in 2026 after a challenging start to the year.
Discussions ranged from Barclays' latest consumer spending data, which revealed spending on travel had declined in March after five consecutive years of growth, to the operational strains exposed by the crisis in the Middle East.
TTG was on the ground to capture the mood – and most important takeaways.
'Price overcomes fear' despite 'amateur' industry response to Gulf crisis
Travel businesses have been urged to sharpen up their regulatory preparedness and crisis resilience, with TravCorp group chief executive Andy Freeth described the recent disruption affecting the Middle East as being "worse than Covid".
Freeth said the crisis had exposed operational strains unlike previous shocks, with "thousands of customers in the Middle East needing to get home quick", while airlines and hotels adopted differing policies.
The "tricky part", Freeth added, was trying to "knit all that together" while maintaining confidence among customers, framing the response around four main priorities – "protecting your customers, team, reputation and cash".
However, he conceded these priorities can often conflict at times of major disruption. "If we give everyone their cash now, then you’ve got no business," he explained.
The Iran War was described as 'worse than Covid' during a panel discussion (Credit: TTG Media)
Another important topic was the damage caused by fragmented supplier responses. Freeth argued inconsistent airline and hotel policies were "terrible" for consumers and the industry, warning they made the sector "look very amateur".
He said restoring confidence would depend on reassuring customers their money is protected and can be returned quickly if disruption hits.
That fed into calls for package travel reform, with Freeth branding the 14-day refund requirement during mass disruption "madness", while Fox Williams partner Farina Azam pointed to proposed supplier refund reforms as a more workable model.
Dubai will 'absolutely' come back
Despite softer Middle East demand, speakers remained bullish on recovery. Freeth insisted "price overcomes fear", arguing value-led pricing would help stimulate bookings even amid geopolitical uncertainty. "Will Dubai come back? Absolutely. It's just the case of when," Freeth said.
He also suggested this pivot in demand could benefit alternative destinations, saying Greece had "played a blinder" in positioning itself strongly as consumers reassess travel plans.
Beyond geopolitical disruption, the panel warned of rising regulatory risk from the new Competition and Markets Authority powers. Azam said travel was firmly in the regulator’s sights following recent enforcement action on drip pricing, while Freeth urged firms to take compliance seriously.
Yet the mood was ultimately one of resilience. "If you can survive the pandemic, you can survive anything," Freeth said, urging businesses to focus on demand, costs and opportunity rather than "talk yourself into a negative spiral".
Fuel 'vulnerability' pushes consumer recovery into next year
Speakers warned geopolitical tensions were creating a volatile backdrop for travel businesses, with operators urged to stay "agile" amid the risk of policy delays. Sophie Wheeler-Treherne, director in Barclays’ government relations team, said when politics moves into "survival mode", it can lead to "delays [and] a bit of policy drift" as well as "sudden pivots".
A key takeaway was a more cautious outlook for consumer demand, with Deloitte chief economist Debapratim De saying a broader recovery in spending may now be pushed into next year.
"If we are to see this elusive broad-based recovery in consumer spending, that will probably happen next year rather than this year," he said, as inflation is forecast to peak at 3.5% with interest rates staying higher for longer.
Inflation – which is forecast to peak at 3.5% – is a contributing factor to slower consumer recovery (Credit: TTG Media)
Fuel security also emerged as a major focus for aviation. Wheeler-Treherne described jet fuel as a "clear potential vulnerability" for the sector, saying the government was looking at diversifying imports and strategic stocks, while the acceleration of sustainable aviation fuel would help reduce reliance on imports over time.
The impact of higher oil prices on airline costs was another theme, with De warning markets had seen a "significant repricing". Oil is expected to be priced at $80 a barrel rather than the $50 forecast earlier this year, raising the risk of further pressure on travel costs.
Travel policy and border friction also featured prominently, particularly around the EU's Entry-Exit System. Wheeler Treherne said the government was focused on "pragmatic re-engagement" with Europe and reducing "frictions for business travellers", while mounting political pressure could force ministers to do more to address disruption faced by British travellers.
People will book 'no matter what'
After a record year for travel spend in 2024, a second year in which the industry successfully unlocked pent-up post-Covid demand, 2025 was a more mixed year for spending on travel.
While spend increased, up by 2.4% year-on-year to £1,455 per average Barclays customer, volumes dropped. Spend was driven by demand for cruise, as well as niche and experiential travel.
However, Barclays' latest consumer confidence survey revealed that although 20% of UK consumers do plan to travel more this year, an equal amount plan to travel less.
"As we look into 2026, many of the challenges from last year remain, with continued geopolitical uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East presenting a significant backdrop for businesses," said Barclays.
The bank's latest consumer spending report, meanwhile, recorded a 3.3% drop in travel spend in March – the first drop since March 2021. Travel agents felt the effects of this, experiencing a more pronounced 4.6% year-on-year drop in March. Spend with airlines also declined by 4.1% in March.
Last year, travel agents enjoyed year-on-year spending growth of 3.3%, airlines 2.1%, hotels, resorts and accommodation 1.6% and cruises and ferries 1.1%.
Barclays' head of client insights Rohan Kumar ran through the bank's latest consumer spending data (Credit: TTG Media)
However, looking at the first quarter of 2026, this growth has slowed or stalled altogether; spend with travel agents is up by 1.4% year-on-year so far, while with hotels, resorts and accommodation, it is flat.
Elsewhere, spending with cruise lines and ferry operators is down by 5.4% year-on-year, and with airlines, it is down by 5.6%.
Barclays said the onus was on the industry "to meet changing demands". "We still expect overall demand to be stable, but consumers are more selective, with booking patterns becoming harder to predict.
"However, with so much breadth of choice available, and older consumers consistently demonstrating a desire for more adventurous holidays, the emphasis is still on the travel industry to stay agile to meet changing demands."
Head of travel Simon Atkinson added Barclays' monthly consumer spending research suggested people will find a way to book their holidays "no matter what".
According to Barclays, Spain remains the UK's top destination, with rising numbers heading to Greece and Asia at the expense of Turkey and New Zealand. And while spending continues to be driven by older consumers, growth is being led by those in the 35 to 49 age bracket.
