With the Fifa World Cup, a 250th anniversary and the centenary of Route 66 to celebrate, it should be a bumper year for tourism to the USA.

But there’s also Donald Trump, his Iran war – and rising costs.

Six months ago, before the Iran conflict, TTG asked US specialists what impact Trump was having on travel to the USA. Their verdict was that any recoil from UK visitors would likely be seen in 2026 given the long booking window. So, what’s been the impact?

Operators tell TTG they are definitely feeling a downturn, while agents report caution among bookers, albeit with continued enthusiasm for travelling to the USA – if not this year, then next.

But there are signs Trump is having an impact on 2026; the latest USA government arrivals figures (for April), which included Easter – a key period for USA travel – reveal UK visitors were down by 11.7% compared with April 2025, when the bank holiday also fell during the month.

Figures for the 12 months to the end of April show total UK arrivals are down 0.9%, bucking the trend but perhaps with worse to come. In this period, the USA saw 9.7 million international visitors, down by 4.3%.

Arrivals from Africa fell by 25% and from the Middle East 18%, while the US Travel Association says it does not expect international visitor spend to regain 2019 levels until 2029.

So while the UK hasn't yet taken as big a hit as other markets, specialists are apprehensive despite the summer of festivities across the Atlantic.

'We are in unique territory'

Yvonne Spencer, Director of North America Travel Service, tells TTG there has been a definite downturn in interest since the start of the Iran war.

“We had a great 2025," she says. "And January and February 2026 started very well, but it did drop in March and April with what was going on in the Middle East.”

However, she and others report some benefit from clients reluctant to transit in the Middle East. “We saw a switch from people going to the Maldives and Mauritius to the west, so we did a marketing spin on USA beaches as an alternative.”

As a result, NATS has recorded a higher booking value. “There’s an element that don’t want to travel to the USA," she admits. "But there is a lot that do, and what we’ve found is the value of the booking is higher. People are spending their money in the west.”

Guy Novik, Founder of USAirtours, agrees. “I’m not looking to trade off others’ misfortunes, but it’s probably one reason why we haven’t seen USA business drop off,” he says. He believes Trump’s tariffs have weakened the dollar and domestic discretionary spend, reducing hotel rates and costs for British visitors.

USAirtours’ bookings are up by 12% and sales value by 20% due to a focus on premium product, but Novik adds: “Do I think the market is 12% up? Absolutely not.

iStock / Gennaro Leonardi

"I anticipate arrivals continuing on a negative trend, based on the fact bookings did not occur last year – and I don’t think last-minute business has filled that hole. If I’m wrong, either the airlines – or possibly the OTAs – are picking it up. But I’m still anticipating a fall in arrivals.”

NATS launched a £250pp off campaign in May to encourage late sales during June’s World Cup, normally a busy month. Spencer adds inflated hotel rates prompted some clients to switch from June to later dates, a common pattern during major sporting events.

However, she agrees USA economic woes are deflating hotel rates. “Las Vegas hotels are up to 25% down, that’s a good selling point. I’m hopeful when the World Cup is done, we will see an upturn.”

Maggi Smit, Managing Director of America and Canada As You Like It, says sales are “pretty slow”. “I think it’s mostly Trump, and people are a bit nervous about fuel," she warns. "We’ve had so many flight cancellations recently – we lost a load of people flying with Emirates and Qatar.”

She adds Canada, often an alternative, was “pretty much full”. The business has taken “a couple” of late World Cup bookings, but Spencer says match ticket prices are “crazy”.

Novik understands nervousness around fuel supply concerns. “We are in unique territory," he adds. "I can’t recall a time when there’s been a threat to fuelling aircraft.”

'It's very, very expensive'

From the agent’s viewpoint, Spa Travel’s Paul Dayson reports USA business is “not the most buoyant”. “I don’t think it’s anything to do with Trump,” he says, adding talk of a fuel crisis was affecting booking confidence generally. “It’s not surprising the way the press keeps reiterating shortages.”

He adds: “The interest is there, but people are hanging on and waiting to see what happens. The USA is seen as a safer area. I wish we were seeing a big trend, but we’re not.”

White’s Travel’s Ian White is fielding lots of questions from clients. “The war, the fuel, the political situation, the cost in the USA, tips, resort fees – it’s a whole mishmash," he says. "We’re getting many more queries.”

He mentions rising costs in the country, having just returned from Texas. “Tipping is out of control and resort fees are huge. It’s very, very expensive.”

iStock / LPETTET

However, White agrees hotel rates have fallen, partly because Canadians are not travelling. He gives the example of one property now a third of normal rates, and says this is counterbalancing higher air fares. He adds the market for so-called "real" America has been less affected.

Travology Travel Managing Director Lucy Clarke takes a different tack. While she believes some clients are deterred by Trump, many don’t care. “If you’re bothered by the politics, you probably weren’t going anyway,” she says.

“We’re still selling the same number of New York breaks as always, and we do a lot of tailor-made itineraries. The only negatives we received was when we did a Facebook Las Vegas campaign; we had a few negative comments, but they weren’t our customers.”