Donald Trump may well claim to be the world’s biggest football fan when the Fifa World Cup final takes place in New York next year, an event that will showcase the US to millions of potential visitors.
But in the meantime, what has his presidency done to the country’s tourism industry? Many feared a so-called "Trump Slump" when he returned to office in January despite there being little evidence to suggest this was an issue during his first term.
But on a blunt, statistical level, there has been little or no impact on Brits’ desire to cross the Atlantic during the first half of 2025, although some believe that could yet change – World Cup or not – given Trump’s conduct second time around.
Figures from the US National Travel and Tourism Office chart a 2.1% increase in UK visitor numbers during the first six months of 2025 to 1.85 million, albeit with a 1.1% year-on-year dip in June. One caveat, though, is that these figures will include a high proportion of travel booked well in advance of Trump’s inauguration in January.
From other international markets, it’s a different story. Arrivals from Germany are down 9% this year, France 8% and the Netherlands 5%. Ireland, the US’s 15th largest international market and one with strong US ties, is down 0.6%. By contrast, vistors from Italy jumped nearly 9% and Spain 2.2%.
In total, arrivals from the US’s top 20 international markets during the first half of the year increased by 0.3% year-on-year to 11.56 million.
While most of this travel is likely to have been booked ahead of Trump’s inauguration, Advantage Travel Partnership commercial director John Sullivan sees no let-up in enthusiasm. “Looking to the second half of the year, we continue to see strong demand for the US, with bookings +16% versus last year and average selling prices +4%,” he said.
Similarly, 60% of agent and tour operator respondents to Visit USA’s latest market barometer covering the April-June period said bookings, enquiries and searches were on par with, or above, 2024 levels. It comes after the association earlier this year insisted bookings were "steady".
’Calm before the storm’
However, USAirtours founder Guy Novik doubts this will last, pointing out the average lead-in time is 12 months. “This is the calm before the storm,” he said. “We’re seeing 8% fewer bookings from agents, but we’re up 14% overall as we have significantly increased the number of agents we work with.
“It doesn’t hide the fact bookings are down – we’re winning a larger slice of a shrinking pie. The average agent has been saying they’re seeing less demand, and that’s reflected in bookings being made now for travel next year."
He added: “The primary reason isn’t Trump, it’s that the US is considerably more expensive than a few years ago, and that’s being driven by inflation. The weakening dollar has helped, driven – ironically – by presidential decrees. However, I wouldn’t say Trump is a natural poster child for inbound tourism.”
Cost considerations
Data shows how some costs to travellers have risen sharply. Financial comparison site Nerdwallet collates monthly US travel cost data using the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index. Nerdwallet’s Travel Price Index reveals average total travel costs were down 1% compared with 2024, and have risen by only 9% since June 2019, before the pandemic.
The chief reason is that airfares were down by 3.5% compared with June 2024, although Nerdwallet admits this is likely to have been distorted by the introduction of more nuanced fares by airlines like basic economy, which UK travellers are unlikely to use.
Novik has another take. “The total number of seats has only just reached pre-pandemic levels. Also, airlines have started to increase premium economy and reduce economy. Virgin Atlantic has just announced it, but we’ve noticed it happening at the expense of economy. That drives prices up.”
Airlines have, indeed, only just restored transatlantic capacity. Figures from aviation analytics specialist Cirium show the number of US flights departing the UK in July, 4,640, was on a par with pre-Covid levels and an increase of 0.8% compared with 2019.
However, the removal of most Boeing 747s from the skies in favour of smaller aircraft means many flights now offer fewer seats, which affects prices.
One bonus, according to Novik, is that Trump’s “presidential decrees” have reduced outbound travel, a bonus for the UK market because airlines have had to reduce fares. “As a result, we’ve seen some price drops at the back end of summer and autumn as capacity has opened up," he said.
However, he doubts this will have much impact. “New York can be an impulse buy, but the US is not really a late market – particularly for families or multi-centres. They are looking at Easter and beyond next year.”
In terms of accommodation, Nerdwallet found hotel rates were down 3.7% compared to 2024, but a 10-year comparison shows a 19.6% rise. Similarly, car rental rates are up by a huge 39% compared with a decade ago before supply issues brought by the pandemic.
Agents, though, have flagged the impact of new – and rising – resort fees, warning they are putting visitors off.
Eating out in the US could also be a punishing experience, according to Nerdwallet, which said food prices “consistently rise nearly every month”. It noted a staggering 49.6% increase since June 2015. Nerdwallet said restaurant prices “have risen more than many other categories of goods”.
’Own goals’
There are other factors; Trump’s Budget Reconciliation Bill recommends hiking the price of the US’s visa waiver programme while at the same time slashing budget for tourism marketing. The US Travel Association said the bill featured “several own goals” before the World Cup.
The association’s president and chief executive Geoff Freeman criticised the proposal to almost double the Esta fee from $21 to $40 (£30) along with the dramatic reduction in funding for marketing organisation Brand USA $100 million to $20 million. Freeman added fees “do nothing but discourage visitation at a time when foreign travellers are already concerned about the welcome experience and high prices”.
Freeman and the association haven’t been coy when it comes to dissent this year after warning in February the country risked missing out on a "golden era" of visitation if it didn’t do more to prepare for a fresh influx of tourists.
It’s not an encouraging picture, but there is some solace in that exchange rates are favourable for Britons. The US is better value than at the start of the year when a pound was worth $1.25 - that figure is now around $1.34. Sterling, meanwhile, hit a 41-month high against the dollar in June, with analysts suggesting a sustained $1.40 exchange rate is possible.
No red carpet?
Freeman’s concern about the welcome travellers receive is another issue. There is anecdotal evidence of an increase in social media scrutiny by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), but we must wait for statistical evidence. CBP said only 0.01% of travellers had electronic devices checked in 2024.
Another worrying official statistic is that in June, land arrivals to the US from the UK were down by 28% and from Ireland, by nearly 41%. The global average fell by 22%, meaning those crossing from Canada and Mexico have dropped sharply.
“Feedback from US suppliers is that the number of hoops people are having to jump through crossing from Canada to the US has significantly increased," said Novik.
It’s an obvious deterrent to twin-centre packages, and a potentially challenging one with the US set to co-host next year’s World Cup with Canada and Mexico.
It’s all in the mix in the run-up to the tournament, which will be a multi-million dollar showcase for the US. Traditionally, big sporting events deter normal tourists, but encourage travel the following year.
Meanwhile, US travel officials will be crossing their fingers Trump doesn’t do anything to make visiting the country any more problematic following an ongoing tariff war and the White House’s bizarre decision last week to hijack Jet2’s viral advertising campaign to promote its deportee flights.
