Jet2holidays was the first to rule out surcharging this summer, closely followed by easyJet holidays and Tui. Intrepid Travel, Kuoni and CV Villas have all made similar pledges in recent days.
This has been complemented by positive messages from short-haul carriers and the UK government on fuel supplies this summer while the Strait of Hormuz, one of the main shipping corridors for oil and jet fuel, remains shut owing to the war in Iran.
However, Advantage is advising members – and the wider agent community – to caution clients against leaving it late to book with prices likely to creep up as the season goes on, as usual, and with the added challenges of dwindling availability and flight consolidation.
'Lock in now'
John Sullivan, Advantage Commercial Director, said the so-called "big three" coming out with no surcharge messages had "really helped". "It really brings some consumer confidence back at exactly the right time," he said, speaking to media ahead of the 2026 Advantage conference in Madrid.
"I think headlines were probably worrying people, but they've done a big job turning people's or changing people's perception and making them feel confident. To be honest, we worked tirelessly to try and get all sorts of commitment from our operator partners to bring people back into the market."
Advantage Chief Executive Julia Lo Bue-Said said the way the government and UK airlines had come out very clearly to say, as they see it right now, that they have no concerns about fuel supply this summer had helped mitigate the "scaremongering" headlines she believes were impacting confidence.
"We're starting to see customers be a lot more confident off the back of that." she said, referencing recent headlines about 13,000 flights being cancelled during May, which she said had caused "a real issue with confidence". Lo Bue-Said added the messaging from the government and airlines was achieving real "cut through".
Lo Bue-Said said, ultimately, the industry's message had to be one of book now, lock in early, and lean on the "gold-plated" protection Atol packages offer. "That's what you can do right now – that's what you should be doing right now," she said. "We know people want to book. We know they want to make sure they're locking their prices. Do not wait for the last minute.
"We're approaching school holidays, a busy period. Prices will go up, not because of fuel, but because it's the time of year. We see it every year. We can't guard against that. So lock in now, book now, there are some brilliant prices now. That is the message that we're trying to get out there."
Agents thrive in lates market
Nonetheless, Sullivan and Lo Bue-Said agreed that the post-pandemic trend towards lates – with 40% of Advantage members' business coming within 12 weeks of departure – had endured. "That pattern hasn't gone away," said Sullivan.
Lo Bue-Said added the typically buoyant post-Easter period had been affected by Donald Trump's actions, as well as talk of fuel shortages and surcharges and "rollercoaster" messaging. "It's been difficult to ascertain what is happening from a consumer sentiment point of view," she said. "But certainly, getting closer to summer, that booking confidence is starting to shape through."
Asked if the booking climate was creating cash flow challenges for members, Lo Bue-Said said Advantage members were having to run their businesses not knowing what's going to happen from one month to the next. "It's tough for any business trying to manage that," she said.
However, she said in 2026, agents were well accustomed to working in a late market. "They've typically always been really good in lates, as opposed to the old days. The big multiples were really good at earlies, our independents were really good at late booking.
"Ultimately, for any business trying to manage their costs in an unpredictable market where sales are coming through much later, it's always going to be a challenge."
Sullivan said agents needed a mix – earlies, lates and ultra-lates. "From a cash point of view, it [lates] is instant cash, you know. It's cash in your bank there and then," he said.
"With stuff that's booked super early, you're going to wait a long time before you realise that cash, and actually, the longer you're out, the more potential there is to change those bookings, and those bookings need to be touched before they become reality, which could cost you."
Competition to keep short-haul pricing in check
While Lo Bue-Said and Sullivan agreed prices would undoubtedly rise regardless of the conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent fuel crisis, they weren't able to say with certainty whether prices were going up faster than they did last year, adding there was disparity between pricing fluctuations for short-haul and long-haul travel.
"I don't think we can absolutely categorically say holidays are going up in price because of fuel," said Lo Bue-Said, while stressing any effect so far was more readily impacting long-haul. "For short-haul Europe, there's so much competition, and we forget that. We've got an abundance of availability. So I think the fuel impact will be less on Europe.
"Who knows – in six, seven, eight, nine, 10 weeks from now – we don't really know how long this is going to go on for. But I don't think for a second the days of high-cost European flights we're anywhere near there. The market has matured too much, it's too competitive."
Who stands to benefit?
Lo Bue-Said and Sullivan agreed Greece stood to be one of the big winners owing to its pledge to relax the EU's new border checks for Brits, and said Spain would likely be another beneficiary of the uncertainty in the market.
"I think some of the more mature shorter-haul summer sun destinations are likely to have a bumper year," said Lo Bue-Said, who revealed Greece's percentage share of Advantage members' bookings had gone up since it came out with its stance on the EU Entry-Exit rollout.
She continued: "Spain has an abundance of capacity, an abundance of flights. It's an easy destination for Brits. No matter where you're going, it's a two-, two-and-a-half hour flight. It's very likely to continue having record years this year alongside some of those other European destinations."
The Advantage chiefs believe Greece's bold move on EU Entry-Exit could be a masterstroke (Credit: iStock / BalkansCat)
Sullivan added it could be an opportunity for alternative destinations to pick up new business, as was seen with demand for Madeira and Malta during and coming out of the pandemic.
"When that was the choice, they went, and they went in their droves – and in fairness, it did wonders for those destinations," he said. "I think, again, a consumer will get to that point of, 'well, I wanted to go to Dubai, I can't, so I'll go somewhere else, I won't go without, I'll find something else'."
Returning to the big three and travel's tour operator landscape, Lo Bue-Said said the trade was fortunate to have "some of the best value package holiday providers anywhere in the world".
"I think the choice we give consumers through some of the big brands our members sell is phenomenal," she said. "Their investment in product, value, and looking after customers is phenomenal.
"There's peace of mind in the knowledge they've got an agent who has their back and flying on a great package holiday in particular."
